What I'd like to point out first and foremost is the usage of the propagandised term 'prediction market', rather it's a sophisticated way of saying betting site or casino, but now popularised to refer to the growing narrative of crypto-powered current affairs betting.

Gambling: betting money on the outcome of future events, such as a horse race.

Much like meme coins, 'prediction markets' seek to please the 'get rich quick' mindset, the new generation of crypto adoptees that value cryptocurrency less as economic sovereignty or for its blockchain technology and more as a means to get rich reinforcing every negative stereotype associated with the crypto space.

What's especially important to highlight is the marketing and public identity that's been crafted by these platforms to frame their 'prediction market' not as a gambling site but rather as a 'market' of binary outcome events, with either or outcome sold as 'shares' which 'traders' can buy as an 'investment' based on their 'informed decisions about the future'. By the way, these are all terms and phrases used in the documentation of a notable 'prediction market'.

By rebranding bets as 'trades' and wagers as 'shares' platforms give intellectual cover to users turning what would be traditional gambling into something that feels like strategic decision-making and 'trading' which is incredibly manipulative and exploitative.

Rather this psychological framing plays into something behavioural economists call the 'illusion of control', the belief that skill can influence chance. A cognitive bias that causes us to exaggerate our ability to influence the outcome of events typically used in the context of financial trading.

A 2003 study of traders at four City of London investment banks found those “with a high propensity to illusion of control exhibit a lower profit performance and earn less than those with low illusion of control.”

Why is this relevant? The illusion of control bias is typically used in the context of financial trading, though by 'prediction markets' framing their platform as a 'market' rather than a casino, cognitive biases like the illusion of control fool users into thinking the same rules apply on two different playing fields.

By passing their online casino as a 'trading' platform users are manipulated to think skill or expertise can influence the outcome of an event.

Don't take off your trader's hat when gambling, you might just realise that you're in a casino.

Unfortunately it's naive retail investors fooled by the illusion of fast and easy money who I would imagine are the first to fall victim to these casinos disguised as trading markets.

The popularity of meme coins has undoubtedly reinforced the negative stereotypes crypto has faced over the years and now with the rise of 'prediction markets' the line between trading and gambling is more blurred than ever.

For as long as the 'get rich quick' mindset dominates the crypto space, we'll continue to see misplaced innovation and plenty of resources focused on building adrenaline-rushed, gamified platforms built to sell retail investors the dream of overnight riches rather than technological and economic advancements that contribute to solving real problems in the real world.

Until the industry outgrows its obsession with fast money, the crypto space will continue reinventing new ways to sell the dream of overnight riches, forgetting the revolutionary promise that started it all.