Sideways Is Not the End: 3 Potential Turning Points After Bitcoin's Crash

April 2025. After Bitcoin’s sharp correction last month, the market has entered a prolonged sideways phase. From both on-chain data and sentiment indicators, this low-volatility zone may be the “silent phase” before the next trend kicks in.

In this article, I’ll explore three possible turning points for the crypto market, drawing from on-chain stablecoin flows, user activity shifts, and macro sentiment structures. I’ll also include observations from Dune Analytics and CryptoQuant that shaped my thinking.

1、Stablecoin flows: Returning capital signals latent demand

According to Dune and DeFiLlama data, stablecoins like USDT and USDC have seen rising net inflows into CEXs in the past two weeks. While this hasn't yet converted into buying pressure, it suggests capital is quietly positioning.

Historically, stablecoin inflows tend to precede market rebounds by 2–4 weeks.

2、On-chain user behavior: New narratives forming under the radar

Even though user activity on Solana, EigenLayer, and other major protocols has slowed down, several new protocols are seeing rising engagement, despite the market silence.

This could imply a new narrative is beginning to form, just as we saw with AI and large-language-model tokens in late 2023.

3、Sentiment & positioning: Extreme pessimism = contrarian opportunity?

Metrics like Binance Long/Short Ratio and social sentiment indexes (e.g. LunarCrush) suggest extreme pessimism and market fatigue. BTC volumes have dropped to a six-month low.

Historically, such consensus bearishness often leads to short-term reversals or trend flips — as seen in March 2020 and June 2022.

My Outlook: 3 Key Signals to Watch

Stablecoin reserves increase + CEX reserves trend higher

Breakout in TVL or user activity in one emerging protocol

First signs of momentum in a new on-chain narrative

I’ll continue to publish market observations and insights on my Mirror and Twitter/X accounts.Everyone is welcome to join the discussion!

Sideways Is Not the End: 3 Potential Turning Points After Bitcoin's Crash

April 2025. After Bitcoin’s sharp correction last month, the market has entered a prolonged sideways phase. From both on-chain data and sentiment indicators, this low-volatility zone may be the “silent phase” before the next trend kicks in.

In this article, I’ll explore three possible turning points for the crypto market, drawing from on-chain stablecoin flows, user activity shifts, and macro sentiment structures. I’ll also include observations from Dune Analytics and CryptoQuant that shaped my thinking.

1、Stablecoin flows: Returning capital signals latent demand

According to Dune and DeFiLlama data, stablecoins like USDT and USDC have seen rising net inflows into CEXs in the past two weeks. While this hasn't yet converted into buying pressure, it suggests capital is quietly positioning.

Historically, stablecoin inflows tend to precede market rebounds by 2–4 weeks.

2、On-chain user behavior: New narratives forming under the radar

Even though user activity on Solana, EigenLayer, and other major protocols has slowed down, several new protocols are seeing rising engagement, despite the market silence.

This could imply a new narrative is beginning to form, just as we saw with AI and large-language-model tokens in late 2023.

3、Sentiment & positioning: Extreme pessimism = contrarian opportunity?

Metrics like Binance Long/Short Ratio and social sentiment indexes (e.g. LunarCrush) suggest extreme pessimism and market fatigue. BTC volumes have dropped to a six-month low.

Historically, such consensus bearishness often leads to short-term reversals or trend flips — as seen in March 2020 and June 2022.

My Outlook: 3 Key Signals to Watch

Stablecoin reserves increase + CEX reserves trend higher

Breakout in TVL or user activity in one emerging protocol

First signs of momentum in a new on-chain narrative

I’ll continue to publish market observations and insights on my Mirror and Twitter/X accounts.Everyone is welcome to join the discussion!