Since the last halving that occurred in April 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen approximately 90.72% up to the recent all-time high, from $64,647 to $123,091. It's true that since 2022, the asset has been in an upward trend, but the question everyone wants answered is: how long will BTC continue to rise in this cycle?

Many have already declared the end of the cycle when the price reached its last peak near $112,000 and started to fall, but BTC's resilience has shown that the cycle is not over yet.

By analyzing the Stock-to-Flow (an indicator that estimates BTC's price level based on the available supply in the market relative to the amount mined per year), we can see that at all cycle peaks, the price per unit exceeded the expected fair value line for that period, which would be around $330,000 per BTC.

Note that with each cycle, the price crossed the expected value by a smaller percentage than the previous year. This is not an observation exclusive to this indicator, as according to the law of diminishing returns, we will see smaller and smaller rises and falls.

Following this same reasoning, analyzing the Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart Indicator's narrowing growth profile, we can see that in the first two cycles, the price broke through the rainbow arc, with the second less than the first, and so on. In the previous cycle, the maximum price was in the dark orange zone, forming a double top in the lighter orange zone. For this cycle, it is reasonable to think, based on this indicator, that the price could reach the yellow zone, with an average price between $188,000 and $256,000.

According to MVRV, which measures market value relative to realized value, historically, market peaks have always been marked by high values. In the last cycle, the indicator reached a value of 3.96. It is possible to see a downward trend in the indicator across cycles, following the theory of diminishing returns.

This projected trend line, which is around 2.75, may mark the top of the current cycle. Over the past four years, this level has often signaled the beginning of a market correction.

According to on-chain data, the average price for long-term holders (LTH) is $36,571 per BTC. At the time of writing this article, the asset's price is approximately $116,700, meaning these major investors are sitting on roughly a 218% profit. Historically, LTH tend to start a larger profit-taking movement when gains exceed 300%. Projecting this percentage, the estimated value is around $146,000. With an MVRV ratio of about 2.75, the BTC price would be roughly $130,000 per unit.

Putting all these on-chain data points together indicates that there is still some way to go. The price of BTC in this cycle remains the big question mark. Of course, this analysis only considers some on-chain and historical data, and a more in-depth evaluation is still needed.

After that, the question remains: when will this cycle’s top occur? I don’t have a crystal ball, but it’s possible to make a projection. By analyzing Bitcoin cycles since the Halving, we can notice a pattern in the number of days until the peak during the last two cycles. In the 2016–2020 cycle, it took 525 days from the Halving to the market top. In the 2020–2024 cycle, it took 527 days. Following this pattern, the current cycle’s top is projected for 529 days, which would be on October 2, 2025.

This is a reasonable date to keep an eye on for a potential top, especially when we take the macroeconomic context into account. In the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, U.S. interest rates remained unchanged. However, there is already an 88% probability of a rate cut at the next meeting scheduled for September 17 (FedWatch).

A rate cut means more liquidity being injected into the market—a phase where retail investors could potentially enter the market, in a cycle so far dominated by institutional money through ETFs.

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Wallet address: 0x3C410D81059bbadf663Bb69C4c7dF60362c546c9

Since the last halving that occurred in April 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen approximately 90.72% up to the recent all-time high, from $64,647 to $123,091. It's true that since 2022, the asset has been in an upward trend, but the question everyone wants answered is: how long will BTC continue to rise in this cycle?

Many have already declared the end of the cycle when the price reached its last peak near $112,000 and started to fall, but BTC's resilience has shown that the cycle is not over yet.

By analyzing the Stock-to-Flow (an indicator that estimates BTC's price level based on the available supply in the market relative to the amount mined per year), we can see that at all cycle peaks, the price per unit exceeded the expected fair value line for that period, which would be around $330,000 per BTC.

Note that with each cycle, the price crossed the expected value by a smaller percentage than the previous year. This is not an observation exclusive to this indicator, as according to the law of diminishing returns, we will see smaller and smaller rises and falls.

Following this same reasoning, analyzing the Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart Indicator's narrowing growth profile, we can see that in the first two cycles, the price broke through the rainbow arc, with the second less than the first, and so on. In the previous cycle, the maximum price was in the dark orange zone, forming a double top in the lighter orange zone. For this cycle, it is reasonable to think, based on this indicator, that the price could reach the yellow zone, with an average price between $188,000 and $256,000.

According to MVRV, which measures market value relative to realized value, historically, market peaks have always been marked by high values. In the last cycle, the indicator reached a value of 3.96. It is possible to see a downward trend in the indicator across cycles, following the theory of diminishing returns.

This projected trend line, which is around 2.75, may mark the top of the current cycle. Over the past four years, this level has often signaled the beginning of a market correction.

According to on-chain data, the average price for long-term holders (LTH) is $36,571 per BTC. At the time of writing this article, the asset's price is approximately $116,700, meaning these major investors are sitting on roughly a 218% profit. Historically, LTH tend to start a larger profit-taking movement when gains exceed 300%. Projecting this percentage, the estimated value is around $146,000. With an MVRV ratio of about 2.75, the BTC price would be roughly $130,000 per unit.

Putting all these on-chain data points together indicates that there is still some way to go. The price of BTC in this cycle remains the big question mark. Of course, this analysis only considers some on-chain and historical data, and a more in-depth evaluation is still needed.

After that, the question remains: when will this cycle’s top occur? I don’t have a crystal ball, but it’s possible to make a projection. By analyzing Bitcoin cycles since the Halving, we can notice a pattern in the number of days until the peak during the last two cycles. In the 2016–2020 cycle, it took 525 days from the Halving to the market top. In the 2020–2024 cycle, it took 527 days. Following this pattern, the current cycle’s top is projected for 529 days, which would be on October 2, 2025.

This is a reasonable date to keep an eye on for a potential top, especially when we take the macroeconomic context into account. In the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, U.S. interest rates remained unchanged. However, there is already an 88% probability of a rate cut at the next meeting scheduled for September 17 (FedWatch).

A rate cut means more liquidity being injected into the market—a phase where retail investors could potentially enter the market, in a cycle so far dominated by institutional money through ETFs.

Did this content help you make better analyses? Help us improve and develop more by making a donation.

• My goal is to take a course to become fluent in English and pursue a bachelor's degree in economics to bring even more knowledge to you. I need an average of $6.000 for this.

Wallet address: 0x3C410D81059bbadf663Bb69C4c7dF60362c546c9