Imagine you’re invested in an ETF, and the fund manager changes. Same basket of assets, but a new mind making the decisions. Suddenly, the trajectory shifts—not because the fundamentals changed, but because the human at the helm did.

If you’re thinking from first principles, continued investment isn’t passive—it’s a new decision. You’re no longer betting on the same thing.

In startups and investing, the same rule applies. The core variable is always people. If I had a direct link to everyone’s brain—their intentions, their judgment—I’d be a trillionaire by Tuesday.

In business—whether you’re evaluating hires, co-founders, or investors—you start with competence. But that’s just table stakes. The next question is: can I trust this person?

And more specifically: how do I know I can trust them?

Trust is a strange asset. We accumulate it across a lifetime of interactions, but it only exists in other people’s heads. So if you want to measure it, you have to talk to those people. You have to check references—and not just as a formality. There’s an art to it.

The best reference calls are long. Ten minutes in, the script runs out—and the truth starts to leak in.

I like to approach it as if I’m the hiring manager for all of crypto. My job isn’t just to assess if someone is “good.” It’s to figure out where they’ll thrive, where they can get into a positive feedback loop with the work.

The key is curiosity. People can feel when you’re genuinely trying to understand someone—not vet them. That vibe gets past the filter and opens the door to real signal.

Psychologist Dean Simonton found that creative genius—across fields—correlates with prolific output. Beethoven composed far more than his peers. Most of it was average. But the masterpieces emerged through volume.

Great minds generate a lot. What separates them isn’t just creativity—it’s the judgment to kill the bad ideas.

So when I meet someone who’s always thinking, always writing, always shipping, I pay attention. Not to how polished it all is—but to whether they can triage what’s worth pursuing.

Some of the most impressive people I’ve met weren’t chasing the job—they were chasing the craft.

I’ve seen grads who stay up late reading cryptography papers and debating experts like Justin Thaler, but never mention their GPA or GitHub. They don’t belong in startups. They belong in VC, academia, or research.

Obsession reveals itself when no one’s watching. Through unprompted tangents. Through weird weekend reading. It doesn’t show up on a résumé—but it always shows up in the work.

The trick is not just to find obsessed people. It’s to match the obsession to the role.

Obsession often comes with strong opinions. That’s a feature, not a bug—if there’s trust.

Without trust, strong opinions turn into politics. That dynamic kills companies faster than any market shift.

But when a team trusts each other’s intentions and abilities, disagreement becomes debate. Friction becomes focus. Conflict becomes problem-solving.

In the end, startups are bets on people. Competence gets you in the door. Obsession and trust determine what happens next.

Imagine you’re invested in an ETF, and the fund manager changes. Same basket of assets, but a new mind making the decisions. Suddenly, the trajectory shifts—not because the fundamentals changed, but because the human at the helm did.

If you’re thinking from first principles, continued investment isn’t passive—it’s a new decision. You’re no longer betting on the same thing.

In startups and investing, the same rule applies. The core variable is always people. If I had a direct link to everyone’s brain—their intentions, their judgment—I’d be a trillionaire by Tuesday.

In business—whether you’re evaluating hires, co-founders, or investors—you start with competence. But that’s just table stakes. The next question is: can I trust this person?

And more specifically: how do I know I can trust them?

Trust is a strange asset. We accumulate it across a lifetime of interactions, but it only exists in other people’s heads. So if you want to measure it, you have to talk to those people. You have to check references—and not just as a formality. There’s an art to it.

The best reference calls are long. Ten minutes in, the script runs out—and the truth starts to leak in.

I like to approach it as if I’m the hiring manager for all of crypto. My job isn’t just to assess if someone is “good.” It’s to figure out where they’ll thrive, where they can get into a positive feedback loop with the work.

The key is curiosity. People can feel when you’re genuinely trying to understand someone—not vet them. That vibe gets past the filter and opens the door to real signal.

Psychologist Dean Simonton found that creative genius—across fields—correlates with prolific output. Beethoven composed far more than his peers. Most of it was average. But the masterpieces emerged through volume.

Great minds generate a lot. What separates them isn’t just creativity—it’s the judgment to kill the bad ideas.

So when I meet someone who’s always thinking, always writing, always shipping, I pay attention. Not to how polished it all is—but to whether they can triage what’s worth pursuing.

Some of the most impressive people I’ve met weren’t chasing the job—they were chasing the craft.

I’ve seen grads who stay up late reading cryptography papers and debating experts like Justin Thaler, but never mention their GPA or GitHub. They don’t belong in startups. They belong in VC, academia, or research.

Obsession reveals itself when no one’s watching. Through unprompted tangents. Through weird weekend reading. It doesn’t show up on a résumé—but it always shows up in the work.

The trick is not just to find obsessed people. It’s to match the obsession to the role.

Obsession often comes with strong opinions. That’s a feature, not a bug—if there’s trust.

Without trust, strong opinions turn into politics. That dynamic kills companies faster than any market shift.

But when a team trusts each other’s intentions and abilities, disagreement becomes debate. Friction becomes focus. Conflict becomes problem-solving.

In the end, startups are bets on people. Competence gets you in the door. Obsession and trust determine what happens next.