Authorship and Ethics Statement: The technical analyses regarding the physical storage limits, infrastructural bottlenecks, and the concept of "stranded spare capacity" of the Gulf countries in this article are based on the work titled "The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and the Oil Market" by energy analyst Ahmet Baran Çekim. This technical framework has been synthesized with recent price movements following February 28, 2026, and data from the 1973 oil crisis to establish a new analytical perspective.

Hürmüz Boğazı Krizi ve Petrol Piyasası Hakkında Bilmeniz Gereken Her Şey

Not: Yazıyı dün bitirebildim, yazıda yazdığım bazı fiyatlamalar ve olaylar gerçekleşti, bununla birlikte bu yazıda yalnızca senaryo analizi yapmaya çalıştım, yazıda bahsettiğim üçüncü faza geçeceğimizi düşünmüyorum, yazıyı yeniden editlemeden hızlıca paylaşıyorum.

https://monetaryreflections.substack.com

February 28, 2026, has been recorded as a structural breaking point for global energy markets and the macroeconomy. The escalating military tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz—the jugular vein of global oil trade—leading to an unprecedented logistical paralysis. The barrel price, which stood at $67 on the day the strait closed, has surged to $92 in a short period, sending severe shockwaves through the markets. However, when current data and physical infrastructure constraints are examined, it becomes clear that this 37% price spike is not the ceiling of the crisis, but merely the first step of the "financial pricing" phase.

With approximately 20% of global supply (an average of 20 million barrels per day) under threat, the reason prices did not instantly shoot to $150 lies in a buffer mechanism that is temporarily relieving the market.

When the strait closed on February 28, there was already a massive fleet of tankers navigating the oceans that had exited Hormuz prior to the shutdown. Refineries in Asia and Europe are currently continuing to receive this "oil on water." The main factor keeping the market anchored around the $92 mark is that refineries have not yet fully felt the physical lack of barrels at their ports. However, this is simply the calm before the storm.

In the coming days, offshore inventories will run dry, and the market will face the harsh reality of "physical storage," flawlessly detailed in Ahmet Baran Çekim's analysis. The problem is not that oil is running out underground, but that there is no space left above ground to store the extracted oil.

• Kuwait's Breaking Point: Kuwait's export infrastructure is entirely dependent on Hormuz, and its operational storage life is a mere two days. Given the time elapsed since the crisis began, it is inevitable that Kuwait will halt wellhead production and slow down operations at its massive Al-Zour refinery. This means approximately 3 million barrels per day will be wiped from the system.

• Iraq's Bottleneck: Exporting 94% of its production from the southern Basra terminals, Iraq implemented a 1.5 million barrel cut during the first phase of the crisis. With tankers unable to dock and storage tanks filling up, it is a mathematical certainty that this cut will exceed 3 million barrels.

• Saudi Arabia's Limits: Saudi Arabia has the capability to bypass Hormuz by transporting oil to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea via the East-West pipeline. However, operating this system at maximum capacity (65 bar pressure) creates the risk of pipeline ruptures. Saudi Arabia's storage infrastructure can only withstand this pressure for 25 to 30 days, and the Red Sea route carries high security risks.

Comparing today's landscape with the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo is critical to understanding the scale of the looming threat. In 1973, the volume withdrawn from the market was 9% of global supply (about 5 million barrels), which caused prices to quadruple. Furthermore, the global population at the time was 3.9 billion, with a daily consumption of 55 million barrels.

Today, in a world of 8.2 billion people with a daily consumption network of 104 million barrels, the closure of Hormuz means nearly 20% of the supply is paralyzed. As emphasized in Çekim's article, a vast majority of OPEC+'s 4-5 million barrels of spare production capacity—which is expected to balance the markets—is trapped "inside" the Gulf. This situation, termed "stranded spare capacity," confronts us with the reality that no matter how high the price goes, that oil cannot physically reach the global market.

Every day the strait remains closed pushes the global energy system toward an irreversible physical crisis. The movement from $67 to $92 is merely the "risk pricing" by investors in the futures exchanges.

In the coming days, as the oil on the water reaches its destinations and runs out, refineries will face the reality of "physically" finding no barrels. "Force majeure" declarations from national oil companies and shipping giants will officially document the severing of the supply chain. Once this physical breaking point is reached, panic buying will kick in, and the current $92 level will turn into a springboard. It is an inevitable economic reaction that prices will test the $150 mark in a very short time—and potentially much higher levels if the crisis prolongs. The 1973 crisis dragged the world into stagflation; this logistical paralysis in 2026 has the potential to completely halt the entire global supply chain.

Authorship and Ethics Statement: The technical analyses regarding the physical storage limits, infrastructural bottlenecks, and the concept of "stranded spare capacity" of the Gulf countries in this article are based on the work titled "The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and the Oil Market" by energy analyst Ahmet Baran Çekim. This technical framework has been synthesized with recent price movements following February 28, 2026, and data from the 1973 oil crisis to establish a new analytical perspective.

Hürmüz Boğazı Krizi ve Petrol Piyasası Hakkında Bilmeniz Gereken Her Şey

Not: Yazıyı dün bitirebildim, yazıda yazdığım bazı fiyatlamalar ve olaylar gerçekleşti, bununla birlikte bu yazıda yalnızca senaryo analizi yapmaya çalıştım, yazıda bahsettiğim üçüncü faza geçeceğimizi düşünmüyorum, yazıyı yeniden editlemeden hızlıca paylaşıyorum.

https://monetaryreflections.substack.com

February 28, 2026, has been recorded as a structural breaking point for global energy markets and the macroeconomy. The escalating military tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz—the jugular vein of global oil trade—leading to an unprecedented logistical paralysis. The barrel price, which stood at $67 on the day the strait closed, has surged to $92 in a short period, sending severe shockwaves through the markets. However, when current data and physical infrastructure constraints are examined, it becomes clear that this 37% price spike is not the ceiling of the crisis, but merely the first step of the "financial pricing" phase.

With approximately 20% of global supply (an average of 20 million barrels per day) under threat, the reason prices did not instantly shoot to $150 lies in a buffer mechanism that is temporarily relieving the market.

When the strait closed on February 28, there was already a massive fleet of tankers navigating the oceans that had exited Hormuz prior to the shutdown. Refineries in Asia and Europe are currently continuing to receive this "oil on water." The main factor keeping the market anchored around the $92 mark is that refineries have not yet fully felt the physical lack of barrels at their ports. However, this is simply the calm before the storm.

In the coming days, offshore inventories will run dry, and the market will face the harsh reality of "physical storage," flawlessly detailed in Ahmet Baran Çekim's analysis. The problem is not that oil is running out underground, but that there is no space left above ground to store the extracted oil.

• Kuwait's Breaking Point: Kuwait's export infrastructure is entirely dependent on Hormuz, and its operational storage life is a mere two days. Given the time elapsed since the crisis began, it is inevitable that Kuwait will halt wellhead production and slow down operations at its massive Al-Zour refinery. This means approximately 3 million barrels per day will be wiped from the system.

• Iraq's Bottleneck: Exporting 94% of its production from the southern Basra terminals, Iraq implemented a 1.5 million barrel cut during the first phase of the crisis. With tankers unable to dock and storage tanks filling up, it is a mathematical certainty that this cut will exceed 3 million barrels.

• Saudi Arabia's Limits: Saudi Arabia has the capability to bypass Hormuz by transporting oil to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea via the East-West pipeline. However, operating this system at maximum capacity (65 bar pressure) creates the risk of pipeline ruptures. Saudi Arabia's storage infrastructure can only withstand this pressure for 25 to 30 days, and the Red Sea route carries high security risks.

Comparing today's landscape with the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo is critical to understanding the scale of the looming threat. In 1973, the volume withdrawn from the market was 9% of global supply (about 5 million barrels), which caused prices to quadruple. Furthermore, the global population at the time was 3.9 billion, with a daily consumption of 55 million barrels.

Today, in a world of 8.2 billion people with a daily consumption network of 104 million barrels, the closure of Hormuz means nearly 20% of the supply is paralyzed. As emphasized in Çekim's article, a vast majority of OPEC+'s 4-5 million barrels of spare production capacity—which is expected to balance the markets—is trapped "inside" the Gulf. This situation, termed "stranded spare capacity," confronts us with the reality that no matter how high the price goes, that oil cannot physically reach the global market.

Every day the strait remains closed pushes the global energy system toward an irreversible physical crisis. The movement from $67 to $92 is merely the "risk pricing" by investors in the futures exchanges.

In the coming days, as the oil on the water reaches its destinations and runs out, refineries will face the reality of "physically" finding no barrels. "Force majeure" declarations from national oil companies and shipping giants will officially document the severing of the supply chain. Once this physical breaking point is reached, panic buying will kick in, and the current $92 level will turn into a springboard. It is an inevitable economic reaction that prices will test the $150 mark in a very short time—and potentially much higher levels if the crisis prolongs. The 1973 crisis dragged the world into stagflation; this logistical paralysis in 2026 has the potential to completely halt the entire global supply chain.