Prediction markets were one of the earliest proposed use-cases for smart contract blockchains, promising a way for participants to have skin in the game, hedge against real-world events, and predict outcomes in a way that is more accurate than other methodology. It wasn't until the 2024 election cycle that prediction markets really went mainstream, with Polymarket alone taking in $2.7 billion in volume since their launch in early 2024.

As the prediction market meta grows and more protocols launch, this will inevitably lead to fragmentation across markets.

Enter Seer.

Seer is a prediction market aggregator and arbitrage protocol, building a social-first approach with Farcaster integration that lets you discover and buy positions from any supported market and create an avenue for cross-market arbitrage with matched-pair mintable positions.

One interface, many protocols, best price.

In addition to aggregating third-party protocols, Seer will host it's own native markets that utilize a matched-pair system for minting positions, a prediction market primitive that allows for advanced arbitrage and shorting opportunities. The router allows for positions to be opened across Seer, Polymarket, and other integrated protocols to deliver the absolute best execution price.

Prediction markets are unique in that one side of each market guarantees a profit. What if you could always be on the winning side of that?

When a spread opens up across markets, an opportunity opens up to take both sides of a trade and mathematically guarantee profit. The Seer router tracks these opportunities and lets users take advantage of them quickly.

Even when these opportunities aren't present, aggregated routing across integrated markets provides users a way to fill at the best odds available.

Continuous arbitrage and routing should also help nudge fragmented markets toward a shared, more accurate probability surface—which improves liquidity, reduces mispricing, and yields better forecasts.

Prediction markets are social by nature, participants beliefs are traded on the open market. The initial launch of the Seer app and Farcaster mini-app will allow users to:

• Browse trending markets across Seer, Polymarket, and other integrated protocols.

• See unified odds, depth, and fees.

• Buy/sell through their Farcaster wallet on Base, regardless of the venue's underlying network.

• Share casts with live odds, PnL, and outcome previews.

The initial launch of Seer (January 2026) will feature Seer Router v1, providing:

• Best-price execution across Seer-native markets and Polymarket

• Unified portfolio view across all markets

• A shared schema for categories, oracles, and metadata so identical markets across chains/protocols can be recognized and routed

• Public price/route API for cross-market quotes

Seer ingests markets from Seer-native, Polymarket, and other venues into a canonical schema which maps identical markets across venues (event, outcomes, oracle/resolution, fees, network, etc.) and normalizes quotes to the same basis (probability/price, fee-inclusive).

For buy/sell requests, the router simulates fills across venues using orderbook depth, fees, and bridge costs (for cross-chain venues), selecting the route (or split-route) that yields the best net price and submits transactions accordingly.

Box arbitrage is a market-neutral trade that buys opposite payoffs on the same event across two venues when their prices sum to less than 1 after all fees. You can purchase the cheaper "YES" on Venue A and the cheaper "NO" on Venue B for the identical market and resolution. One of these payoffs will settle to 1 and the other to 0; therefore, if:

$$total_entry_cost_C = price_yes_A + price_no_B + fees < 1$$

Your payout is exactly 1 and guaranteed profit is locked at entry as 1 - C, independent of the event's outcome.

Users can purchase these opportunities with one-click and hold until resolution for a guaranteed profit. Alternatively, users can monitor the current PnL of the position and cash out at any time.

As the protocol grows, Seer will utilize protocol-held revenue to execute these trades via arbitrage bots, allowing staked $SEER to capture the profit directly.

Seer-native markets are built from the ground-up to make capturing arbitrage across markets easier. Before a result is known, participants can:

• Buy either side of the market at it's current price, or

• Mint a "matched-pair" by depositing $1 of collateral and receiving 1 YES and 1 NO

Once the event resolves, the winning token redeems for $1 and the losing token for $0. A pair always maps back to $1, but any half of a pair can be sold at market value.

To sell one!

Minting creates a fresh inventory of YES/NO so you can sell the side the market currently overvalues. For example, let's say in a given market, NO is trading at $0.55. You can deposit $1, get YES+NO, immediately sell NO for $0.55, and you still hold a YES worth ~$0.45. You just manufactured and sold the expensive side instead of waiting for someone to lend it to you.

This is the equivalent of shorting an outcome.

It also helps keep prices fair. If NO drifts too high, minters sell NO until prices revert, because they can always turn one pair into cash equal to YES price + NO price (which should be ≈ $1 minus fees).

Let's use an actual example to showcase how you can perform cross-venue arbitrage on Seer using a "Will ETH hit an all-time high in 2025?" market that exists on both Seer and Polymarket, with identical resolution text and cutoff.

On Polymarket, a YES costs $0.46 and on Seer a NO costs $0.48

1. You chose 1,000 "pairs", for $1000

2. Seer Router computes the effective sum = 0.46 + 0.48 = 0.94 (< 1, a valid arbitrage)

3. Router executes:

   1. Buy 1,000 YES at 0.46 on Polymarket for 460 USDC

   2. Mint 1,000 YES + 1,000 NO by depositing 1,000 USDC on Seer, then immediately selling 1,000 NO into Seer's liquidity at 0.48, receiving 480 USDC

Regardless of the outcome, exactly one of the two claims pays 1,000 USDC, either on Polymarket or Seer.

Seer is being kicked off with the launch of $SEER token on Clanker, which will over time be integrated as a full-fledged protocol and revenue-sharing token. The use-case of $SEER is to:

• Share protocol and arbitrage revenue with stakers

• Incentivize liquidity and alignment across protocols by weighted routing toward high-quality markets, rewarding participation and spread reduction

Once the Seer Router v1 is launched, $SEER holders will be able to stake their tokens in order to split protocol revenue from native markets and captured arbitrage opportunities.

$SEER token was launched via Clanker on November 19th 2025.

Contract Address: 0x45336c84101C6fceDE30c6316Ea72FDBbd753B07

• Liquidity: 60%

• Dev Allocation: 5% — to be staked in protocol

• Early-adopter reservations: 5% — to be distributed through mini-app

• Treasury: 30% for long-term growth allocations, market incentives, and ecosystem grants. Vaulted tokens vest linearly over 180 days.

Trade $SEER on Clanker

• Farcaster mini-app to browse, quote and buy across external venues

• Best-execution routing: fee-inclusive quotes, slippage limits, split routes

• Box-Arb MVP - `Yes A + No B < 1`with 1-click spread lock

• Unified portfolio across venues

• Launch Seer markets with mintable matched-pairs, AMM, RFQ

• Mirror top external markets 1:1 with mapped resolutions

• Router v2 choses cheapest leg via:

  • Direct buy on Seer

  • Mint-and-sell complement on Seer

  • external venue

• $SEER staking with protocol fee-sharing

• Open APIs for quotes, routes, third-party bots

• Protocol-level arbitrage bots

• Pooled arbitrage vaults: users stake capital to a managed vault that executes micro-arbs with pro-rate PnL sharing

• Governance: $SEER holders tune fees, incentives, grants

Follow @seerspace and @jonbray.eth on Farcaster for updates.