
Prediction markets were one of the earliest proposed use-cases for smart contract blockchains, promising a way for participants to have skin in the game, hedge against real-world events, and predict outcomes in a way that is more accurate than other methodology. It wasn't until the 2024 election cycle that prediction markets really went mainstream, with Polymarket alone taking in $2.7 billion in volume since their launch in early 2024.
As the prediction market meta grows and more protocols launch, this will inevitably lead to fragmentation across markets.
Enter Seer.
Seer is a prediction market aggregator and arbitrage protocol, building a social-first approach with Farcaster integration that lets you discover and buy positions from any supported market and create an avenue for cross-market arbitrage with matched-pair mintable positions.
One interface, many protocols, best price.
In addition to aggregating third-party protocols, Seer will host it's own native markets that utilize a matched-pair system for minting positions, a prediction market primitive that allows for advanced arbitrage and shorting opportunities. The router allows for positions to be opened across Seer, Polymarket, and other integrated protocols to deliver the absolute best execution price.
Prediction markets are unique in that one side of each market guarantees a profit. What if you could always be on the winning side of that?
When a spread opens up across markets, an opportunity opens up to take both sides of a trade and mathematically guarantee profit. The Seer router tracks these opportunities and lets users take advantage of them quickly.
Even when these opportunities aren't present, aggregated routing across integrated markets provides users a way to fill at the best odds available.
Continuous arbitrage and routing should also help nudge fragmented markets toward a shared, more accurate probability surface—which improves liquidity, reduces mispricing, and yields better forecasts.
Prediction markets are social by nature, participants beliefs are traded on the open market. The initial launch of the Seer app and Farcaster mini-app will allow users to:
Browse trending markets across Seer, Polymarket, and other integrated protocols.
See unified odds, depth, and fees.
Buy/sell through their Farcaster wallet on Base, regardless of the venue's underlying network.
Share casts with live odds, PnL, and outcome previews.
The initial launch of Seer (January 2026) will feature Seer Router v1, providing:
Best-price execution across Seer-native markets and Polymarket
Unified portfolio view across all markets
A shared schema for categories, oracles, and metadata so identical markets across chains/protocols can be recognized and routed
Public price/route API for cross-market quotes
Seer ingests markets from Seer-native, Polymarket, and other venues into a canonical schema which maps identical markets across venues (event, outcomes, oracle/resolution, fees, network, etc.) and normalizes quotes to the same basis (probability/price, fee-inclusive).
For buy/sell requests, the router simulates fills across venues using orderbook depth, fees, and bridge costs (for cross-chain venues), selecting the route (or split-route) that yields the best net price and submits transactions accordingly.
Box arbitrage is a market-neutral trade that buys opposite payoffs on the same event across two venues when their prices sum to less than 1 after all fees. You can purchase the cheaper "YES" on Venue A and the cheaper "NO" on Venue B for the identical market and resolution. One of these payoffs will settle to 1 and the other to 0; therefore, if:
Your payout is exactly 1 and guaranteed profit is locked at entry as 1 - C, independent of the event's outcome.
Users can purchase these opportunities with one-click and hold until resolution for a guaranteed profit. Alternatively, users can monitor the current PnL of the position and cash out at any time.
As the protocol grows, Seer will utilize protocol-held revenue to execute these trades via arbitrage bots, allowing staked $SEER to capture the profit directly.
Seer-native markets are built from the ground-up to make capturing arbitrage across markets easier. Before a result is known, participants can:
Buy either side of the market at it's current price, or
Mint a "matched-pair" by depositing $1 of collateral and receiving 1 YES and 1 NO
Once the event resolves, the winning token redeems for $1 and the losing token for $0. A pair always maps back to $1, but any half of a pair can be sold at market value.
To sell one!
Minting creates a fresh inventory of YES/NO so you can sell the side the market currently overvalues. For example, let's say in a given market, NO is trading at $0.55. You can deposit $1, get YES+NO, immediately sell NO for $0.55, and you still hold a YES worth ~$0.45. You just manufactured and sold the expensive side instead of waiting for someone to lend it to you.
This is the equivalent of shorting an outcome.
It also helps keep prices fair. If NO drifts too high, minters sell NO until prices revert, because they can always turn one pair into cash equal to YES price + NO price (which should be ≈ $1 minus fees).
Let's use an actual example to showcase how you can perform cross-venue arbitrage on Seer using a "Will ETH hit an all-time high in 2025?" market that exists on both Seer and Polymarket, with identical resolution text and cutoff.
On Polymarket, a YES costs $0.46 and on Seer a NO costs $0.48
You chose 1,000 "pairs", for $1000
Seer Router computes the effective sum = 0.46 + 0.48 = 0.94 (< 1, a valid arbitrage)
Router executes:
Buy 1,000 YES at 0.46 on Polymarket for 460 USDC
Mint 1,000 YES + 1,000 NO by depositing 1,000 USDC on Seer, then immediately selling 1,000 NO into Seer's liquidity at 0.48, receiving 480 USDC
Regardless of the outcome, exactly one of the two claims pays 1,000 USDC, either on Polymarket or Seer.
Seer is being kicked off with the launch of $SEER token on Clanker, which will over time be integrated as a full-fledged protocol and revenue-sharing token. The use-case of $SEER is to:
Share protocol and arbitrage revenue with stakers
Incentivize liquidity and alignment across protocols by weighted routing toward high-quality markets, rewarding participation and spread reduction
Once the Seer Router v1 is launched, $SEER holders will be able to stake their tokens in order to split protocol revenue from native markets and captured arbitrage opportunities.
$SEER token was launched via Clanker on November 19th 2025.
Contract Address: 0x45336c84101C6fceDE30c6316Ea72FDBbd753B07
Liquidity: 60%
Dev Allocation: 5% — to be staked in protocol
Early-adopter reservations: 5% — to be distributed through mini-app
Treasury: 30% for long-term growth allocations, market incentives, and ecosystem grants. Vaulted tokens vest linearly over 180 days.
Trading fees from Clanker are kept as both $ETH and $SEER to prevent ongoing drawdown on price due to fee-collection.
Farcaster mini-app to browse, quote and buy across external venues
Best-execution routing: fee-inclusive quotes, slippage limits, split routes
Box-Arb MVP - `Yes A + No B < 1`with 1-click spread lock
Unified portfolio across venues
Launch Seer markets with mintable matched-pairs, AMM, RFQ
Mirror top external markets 1:1 with mapped resolutions
Router v2 choses cheapest leg via:
Direct buy on Seer
Mint-and-sell complement on Seer
external venue
$SEER staking with protocol fee-sharing
Open APIs for quotes, routes, third-party bots
Protocol-level arbitrage bots
Pooled arbitrage vaults: users stake capital to a managed vault that executes micro-arbs with pro-rate PnL sharing
Governance: $SEER holders tune fees, incentives, grants
Follow @seerspace and @jonbray.eth on Farcaster for updates.
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Jon Bray
Thanks bos
Keep building legend 💙
introducing Seer, prediction market aggregation and arbitrage @clanker initialize $SEER I've been cooking on the protocol design for a bit now, and will be launching Seer v1 soon, a social-first prediction market aggregation router. v1 will pave the way for the real special sauce: prediction market arbitrage opportunities that users and the protocol can take advantage of also in development are native-markets that utilize a matched-pair minted position system, allowing users to short overbought sides of a market and lock in mathematically guaranteed profits in cross-venue positions upon resolution $SEER will function as a protocol token with profit-sharing mechanisms through a staking system, with trading fees helping bootstrap native-markets follow @seerspace for updates, more info below: https://paragraph.com/@jonbray/introducing-seer
congrats :) - hope to hear from you soon on the other stuff we discussed …
how it is going? Any news to share?
Interesting project! I am honestly new to the whole prediction market narrative. I am not your typical American dad that watches football and other team sports. The only sports I keep up with is MMA , Boxing , and some BJJ matches. With that being said I think it would really be cool to build a prediction market on Combat sports. Since I am not really aware of all the prediction market projects out there ; does anyone know if there are already prediction markets for Strictly MMA , Boxing, Etc?
This is the kind of infrastructure play that actually moves the onchain prediction meta. Aggregation + arbitrage + native markets with guaranteed cross-venue edges? That’s not just “another mini app” that’s a liquidity engine. Love seeing teams ship products that give traders real tools instead of vibes. Excited to watch Seer evolve and see how $SEER ties the whole flywheel together. I will be checking it out! What all types of prediction markets will seer include?
Very exciting!
Hey @jonbray.eth, now that Seer is on the horizon, log in to nouns space with Farcaster to customize your token's space - think of it as forecasting a fresh new look with Themes, Fidgets, and Tabs that'll make your $SEER token shine. You're already a master of prediction markets, so predict a space that's all you. Here's your token space: https://nounspace.com/t/base/0x45336c84101C6fceDE30c6316Ea72FDBbd753B07
here's your clanker: [https://www.clanker.world/clanker/0x45336c84101C6fceDE30c6316Ea72FDBbd753B07]
Hey @jonbray.eth, you can now reward believers of your token - people who trade, cast, and fuel positive attention to it. Cura gives you a believer leaderboard. Set up your recurring rewards here https://cura.network/0x45336c84101C6fceDE30c6316Ea72FDBbd753B07?t=token_feed
Not smart to launch when the market is like this especially when your roadmap says stage 1 isn't even until q1 2026. Just seems like you're farming bro.
Q1 is ~4 weeks, hoping to bootstrap fees for arbitrage execution (not free to execute arb opportunities) if the token doesn't do anything until app launch that's fine, it's secondary to the protocol