Prepare yourself, because what is happening in the Bitcoin market is not normal. Every dip is followed by an instant bounce, and every rise feels like a potential trap. For the average investor, the sensation that "everything is a trap"—whether bullish or bearish—is overwhelming and paralyzing. In this environment, the critical difference between success and failure lies in our ability to distinguish between reacting out of fear or euphoria and analyzing with objective data.

This report has a clear purpose: to use historical metrics and market behavior analysis to anticipate the big moves ahead. It is specifically aimed at those seeking clarity amid the noise—investors who want to build a solid strategy rather than being swept away by the emotions of the moment.

To achieve this, we will follow a logical structure: an analysis of the current state through technical and common-sense indicators, an exploration of the psychological patterns driving the market, a data-driven price roadmap, and finally, a transparent personal strategy for facing the coming months.

As an investor, I tend to rely more on fundamental analysis than technical analysis. However, when all technical indicators point in the same direction, I cannot ignore those warnings. Technical analysis then becomes a crucial tool for cutting through noise and subjective opinions. While no single indicator is foolproof, the confluence of several historically reliable signals offers us a significant probabilistic advantage.

• The Break of the Bull Trend: The most basic yet one of the most forceful signals. The weekly trend line that sustained the entire upward movement since 2022 has been broken strongly. Historically, when such a major support structure gives way, the market changes phase and prepares for a bearish trend.

  

• The 200-Week Moving Average (The "Cycle Indicator"): Considered one of the most reliable indicators in Bitcoin's history. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, the moment this moving average touched or approached the previous all-time high marked the end of the bull cycle. It is currently around

Beyond the charts, sometimes you just need to use logic. My common sense tells me the following:

• Trump Effect Evaporated: The momentum that led us to all-time highs has dissipated.

• Market Divergence: Stocks (S&P 500) and gold are at all-time highs. Everything is going up, except cryptocurrencies. When everything rises but you don't, the market is trying to tell you something.

• The Liquidity Myth: The argument that "more global liquidity means a higher Bitcoin price" has proven false in the short term. Liquidity has been rising strongly for months while the crypto market is bleeding.

These common sense points lead us to the same conclusion as the technical indicators. But to understand the why behind these movements, we must analyze the real driver of cycles: human psychology.

Market cycles are not magical or random phenomena. They are the predictable reflection of collective human psychology—the eternal pulse between fear and greed—and the calculated strategy of large institutional players who know how to exploit these emotions.

Bitcoin's most robust yet most ignored historical pattern is its four-year rhythm: three years of an uptrend followed by one year of a downtrend. This cycle is not repeated by chance or due to the halving, but because human behavior is constant. Narratives change (ETFs, global liquidity, regulations), but the emotions that move the masses—euphoria at the top, panic at the bottom—remain unalterable.

Many retail investors believe that the arrival of institutions like BlackRock is a safety net for the market. The reality is much more pragmatic. The strategy of these big players can be broken down into four logical steps:

1. Main Objective: It is not to "help the market" or support the technology. Their only goal is to make money.

2. Method: Their business model is universal and simple: buy low and sell high.

3. Tactic: To be able to buy low, they need someone to sell to them at those prices. That someone is the retail investor—that is, you.

4. Execution: To force that sale, they provoke doubt and panic. They are the ones who generate emotion through news, create bearish narratives, and manipulate the price to exhaust the average investor, forcing their capitulation at the worst possible time.

This contrast in mindset is the key to understanding who wins and who loses in this game.

The biggest mistake of the retail investor is to seek justifications for their hopes instead of analyzing objective reality. A perfect example is the Twitter analyst who, upon seeing that the Bitcoin-to-dollar chart does not support their bullish thesis, decides to change it and analyze it against gold or the euro.

This behavior is a clear symptom of confirmation bias. They are not seeking the truth but a validation of a pre-existing desire. It is a mindset that inevitably destroys portfolios, as it leads to denying danger signals and selling at the point of maximum panic, precisely when institutions are buying.

Understanding these behavioral patterns is the first step toward projecting future scenarios with a higher probability of success.

It is essential to clarify that what follows is neither guesswork nor investment advice. It is an analysis based on fractals and statistics to create a "price map." The goal is not to predict the future with certainty, but to have an action plan for making better decisions if the market reaches certain key levels.

There is an astonishing mathematical similarity between the 2020-21 cycle and the current cycle, with a statistical correlation of 93.5%. Although the magnitude of the movements is smaller, the structure and order of events are practically identical. Extrapolating this pattern, the price behavior could follow this sequence:

• Short-Term Bounce: A push up to the $99,000 zone.

• First Drop: A correction to a first bottom at $67,000.

• Second Bounce: A final relief up to $83,000.

• Final Cycle Bottom: The final capitulation, setting a market floor in the range of $66,000 - $68,000.

Classic cycle theory, which would imply an 80% drop, would suggest a bottom at $33,000-$36,000. However, this scenario is unlikely. The reason is that in this cycle, we have not experienced a "parabolic phase" of massive euphoria. Without an excess of euphoria, it makes no sense to expect such a violent drop. A more reasonable interpretation for a "mature cycle" is to expect a 50-60% correction from the highs.

• Most Probable Bottom Price: This approach places the bear market floor between $50,000 and $65,000. This range fits perfectly with the previous fractal analysis and reflects the lower volatility of the current cycle.

• Long-Term Target Price (2028-2029): Discarding both the $330k target of the fractal (too optimistic) and the $115k of classic theory (too pessimistic), an average that respects the natural deceleration of the asset would give us a more feasible target for the next cycle top: $180,000 - $190,000.

With these possible scenarios in mind, the key question is: how should one act with a clear strategy?

The investment philosophy can be summarized simply: there are times to be hyperactive and others where "doing the least possible is the most profitable decision." The key to knowing which moment we are in is to have a predefined plan and stick to it, without improvising based on the emotion of the day.

My current strategy is clear, transparent, and based on patience:

• Main Position: 65% of my portfolio is in stablecoins, patiently waiting for the right moment to buy, when the risk/reward is clearly favorable.

• Long-Term Investments: The remaining 35% is distributed in Bitcoin and solid altcoins that are held (hodled) regardless of short-term fluctuations, as the investment thesis is for several years.

• Active Activities: The only active management at the moment is shorting (short selling) altcoins with weakness patterns, while taking advantage of farming airdrops from exchanges like Backpack and Based.

While most investors operate with hopes, I operate with probabilities, and today all probabilities point to one word: caution.

This does not mean "fear" or "panic." It simply means that the market has not yet given a clear and unequivocal buying signal for long-term capitalization. We have not reached that point of maximum opportunity where great fortunes are built.

The ultimate goal of any investment strategy should be to achieve peace of mind. Having a plan, protecting capital, and not being carried away by emotions allows for better decisions and a calmer life, regardless of whether Bitcoin goes up or down 20% tomorrow.

The key to long-term success in the markets is not predicting the future with certainty, but operating with probabilities in our favor. This is achieved through rigorous analysis of historical data, a deep understanding of human behavior, and strict risk management.

The smart investor is patient. They protect their capital in times of uncertainty and wait disciplinedly for opportunities where the potential profit far outweighs the assumed risk. Instead of seeking confirmation for their hopes, they analyze reality objectively and act accordingly.

I invite you to use this information not as a roadmap to follow blindly, but as a foundation for educating yourself, creating your own plan, and, above all, preparing. The market will always offer new opportunities for those who are ready to seize them.