Sometimes you have to fight for a just peace. That is what Ukraine is doing. It is the underdog. A dictator needs to invade or his regime will collapse. The Ukraine invasion has to be seen in that light.

The military strategy in Donbas has become complicated if only because Ukraine has lacked long-range artillery. But I am for peace. I am for a negotiated settlement. That would require an immediate ceasefire and all cessation of hostilities and letting the grain go out of the Ukrainian ports.

Once you have the ceasefire, you can then talk about territory. If Ukraine agrees to hold a referendum in the contested areas, that will be a huge concession. That referendum would have to be internationally sponsored and conducted. That would have to include Crimea. The areas where a referendum might be conducted would have to be completely demilitarized.

But there is no immediate chance of a ceasefire. And so preaching peace to Ukraine is fantasyland. Ukraine more than the world must want peace. But they face the reality of a relentless, indiscriminate onslaught, a firing of World War II-style weapons from 10 miles away. They will be picking up stray explosives for years even after a ceasefire and peace. And they will still avoid areas that they might not be able to clean up. Putin has been primitive in his ways.

Peace can not be about, okay Vlad, so you can have whatever you have managed to conquer. And forget the war crimes. War crimes are for losers. You won.

That is not peace. That is capitulation.

What Moscow needs is an Orange Revolution like Ukraine had in 2004 and that was my inspiration one year later as I worked for democracy in Nepal.

If the Ukrainian military can have the matching long-range artillery, Putin can be pushed out or at least brought to a standstill. And then peace can be possible. A negotiated peace where Ukraine is not a defeated party can be an option. You can not imagine Russia holding referendums anywhere in Russia. But I think it is okay if Ukraine agrees to the same. Ukraine is a democracy. It still has many robust institutions left to build. But it has one element in plenty: a people that will fight for liberty.

A military stalemate in Donbas is going to be plenty of bad news for Putin. Donbas is Putin wanting to rule Russia for 20 more years. It is not about Donbas.

The piece that is missing is the global Russian diaspora needs to organize weekly protests in cities around the world. You build momentum until you manage to flood the streets of Moscow. Liberty rings inside every human heart.

These protest marches will topple Putin with or without any military strategy in Donbas, with or without any economic sanctions on Russia, although both are force multipliers. But no force is being multiplied if the protest marches are not being organized.

I would like to see Gary Kasparov in front of the UN every Sunday.

https://twitter.com/paramendra/status/1538130288009744388

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