If you understand prediction markets, you know they could become very valuable. Academics have written papers and modeled them for years. Their time has come. I saw where Polymarket was going to start prediction markets in individual city housing markets.

What a fantastic idea.

A liquid market will help buyers and sellers understand the real pulse of the market. It will help guide realtors. It will help guide developers. Ultimately, it will help guide government officials and boards on zoning and things like that.

Yesterday, the American Gaming Association and Indian Gaming Association sent a letter to Congress urging them to regulate sports gambling as it relates to prediction markets.

Again, the right solution. It’s time to split the baby.

Prediction markets in sports do not do anything to move the ball forward when it comes to micro or macroeconomics. They do not propel society forward, and they don’t help people manage risk. They don’t change the variance, or uncertainty around decision-making. They are pure entertainment. They are fun.

All they are is a different way to structure sports betting. Instead of betting against the house, it’s a marketplace, and you buy and sell with other bettors. It is zero sum game, with the house taking a commission. Again, it is pure entertainment. The only economic benefit that derives from it goes into the participant’s pocket and into the platform offering the marketplace.

I don’t take that position because I am running for office in Nevada. It’s the right position both theoretically and in practice. It’s first principles and hews to the ideas that make America great.

Prediction markets in economic data are very valuable. Prediction markets in politics are better than polls. Prediction markets about when software or a product will be released are great. Prediction markets on how many students will graduate at a grade level reading ability, would be interesting. It might let colleges know what kind of student is coming, and it would let human resources people know what kind of potential employee is in the pipeline. A prediction market on when Jason Calcanis will get a prediction correct would be a great market. I think David Sacks would be a short seller. They allow people to manage risk, and when you can manage risk efficiently, you can provide better value to customers.

But sports, no

I understand why they went after sports. It’s a huge market. It has cheap customer acquisition costs. Broadcasters spread it via word of mouth advertising. It’s much easier to understand if the Browns are going to beat the Packers than what the next producer price index will be. But sports predictions have no tangible benefit to our lives other than entertainment.

That doesn’t mean I don’t think they should try to set up a prediction market for sports while hewing to existing state regulations. That might be a good idea depending on the economics. But, like insurance, gambling has traditionally been regulated by individual states, not the Feds. It makes the startup and operation of those businesses more expensive because each state can be different, and it is impossible to design a one-size-fits-all software solution.

This whole thing is working its way through the courts, both state and federal, and will become a SCOTUS case someday. That is, unless Congress acts and instructs the CFTC.

It is far better to work through legislation to build consensus and policy than do it in other ways. That is, if they can actually do that.

Follow me on X here. Donate to the campaign here.

If you understand prediction markets, you know they could become very valuable. Academics have written papers and modeled them for years. Their time has come. I saw where Polymarket was going to start prediction markets in individual city housing markets.

What a fantastic idea.

A liquid market will help buyers and sellers understand the real pulse of the market. It will help guide realtors. It will help guide developers. Ultimately, it will help guide government officials and boards on zoning and things like that.

Yesterday, the American Gaming Association and Indian Gaming Association sent a letter to Congress urging them to regulate sports gambling as it relates to prediction markets.

Again, the right solution. It’s time to split the baby.

Prediction markets in sports do not do anything to move the ball forward when it comes to micro or macroeconomics. They do not propel society forward, and they don’t help people manage risk. They don’t change the variance, or uncertainty around decision-making. They are pure entertainment. They are fun.

All they are is a different way to structure sports betting. Instead of betting against the house, it’s a marketplace, and you buy and sell with other bettors. It is zero sum game, with the house taking a commission. Again, it is pure entertainment. The only economic benefit that derives from it goes into the participant’s pocket and into the platform offering the marketplace.

I don’t take that position because I am running for office in Nevada. It’s the right position both theoretically and in practice. It’s first principles and hews to the ideas that make America great.

Prediction markets in economic data are very valuable. Prediction markets in politics are better than polls. Prediction markets about when software or a product will be released are great. Prediction markets on how many students will graduate at a grade level reading ability, would be interesting. It might let colleges know what kind of student is coming, and it would let human resources people know what kind of potential employee is in the pipeline. A prediction market on when Jason Calcanis will get a prediction correct would be a great market. I think David Sacks would be a short seller. They allow people to manage risk, and when you can manage risk efficiently, you can provide better value to customers.

But sports, no

I understand why they went after sports. It’s a huge market. It has cheap customer acquisition costs. Broadcasters spread it via word of mouth advertising. It’s much easier to understand if the Browns are going to beat the Packers than what the next producer price index will be. But sports predictions have no tangible benefit to our lives other than entertainment.

That doesn’t mean I don’t think they should try to set up a prediction market for sports while hewing to existing state regulations. That might be a good idea depending on the economics. But, like insurance, gambling has traditionally been regulated by individual states, not the Feds. It makes the startup and operation of those businesses more expensive because each state can be different, and it is impossible to design a one-size-fits-all software solution.

This whole thing is working its way through the courts, both state and federal, and will become a SCOTUS case someday. That is, unless Congress acts and instructs the CFTC.

It is far better to work through legislation to build consensus and policy than do it in other ways. That is, if they can actually do that.

Follow me on X here. Donate to the campaign here.