The Monty Hall problem is a well known probability puzzle that seems simple, but teaches a good lesson about switching strategies once new information is revealed.

For those who don't know, here’s the setup:

You’re on a game show. There are three doors. Behind one door is a car (a prize), behind the other two are goats (worthless). You pick a door. Then the host, who knows what’s behind each, opens one of the remaining doors to reveal a goat. Now, you’re given a choice: stick with your original pick, or switch.

Mathematically, you should always switch. Your odds go from 1/3 to 2/3. But most people don’t. Why? Because they trust their original decision, or don’t fully understand the implications of the new information and they could actually perceive their odds still being 50/50 chance of receiving the prize.

To bring this back to crypto investor psychology, we are specifically assessing the game show host 'the markets' decision to reveal one door that does not have the prize 'something of value' behind it.

For years, as narratives and ecosystems have come and gone, people, including myself, have picked 'A-Door' in the form of altcoins and native chain tokens. Sometimes we had good reasons for choosing those doors, but more often than not, the prize behind them wasn’t clear. With all the noise from market participants and shifting narratives, it’s easy to end up having chosen the wrong door, only to find a goat instead of 'the prize'. Even as ecosystems mature, they rarely make it obvious where the real value lies.

But now, Stacks ($STX) is doing something few others haven't: it’s opening the door and showing you the goat (the $STX token). For those who don't know Stacks is a 'layer 2-sidechain-anchored-chain' blockchain built on top of Bitcoin. Stacks ecosystem as of 10.06.2025 is comprised of three major options of value for market participants to invest/participate in, sBtc (decentralised bitcoin 1-1 peg within the stacks ecosystem), $STX token, and the Stacks Ecosystem (Users, Apps, blockchain security/decentralisation)

Stacks is proposing to increase its native token supply to use the excess cash to help fund ecosystem growth for a sustainable and hopefully a long-term future. This hard fork in tokenomics is diverting away from its Bitcoin-inspired halving model, and with this new change will hopefully provide more growth specifically for sBTC (a native, programmable Bitcoin asset), for developers, users, and apps in the Stacks ecosystem (Sacrificing Door 1 - $STX token for, Door 2 - sBtc & Door 3 - Stacks ecosystem)

As summarised here, "Through minimal tweaks to overall inflation, SIP-031 will create 500m STX over five years for the Stacks Endowment, which will enable further investment in marketing, integrations, DeFi incentives, developer and founder incentives, and much more. Stacks will remain well below the median inflation rate for Top 50 projects by market cap and be able to build a treasury that is better suited for the caliber of the project, the current landscape, and the scope of its mission to unlock the Bitcoin economy." - you can read more on this here.

This might look like a dilution. But using the Monty Hall framework, it could be a signal. The game show host(the market) is opening a door and giving you valuable information: $STX may have been your initial choice, but it’s no longer the optimal one. The value has shifted within the stacks ecosystem.

The decision to increase $STX emissions resembles more of a deliberate reallocation of resources. The Stacks Foundation and core ecosystem players are signaling that they care more about building lasting infrastructure, real utility, and Bitcoin-native programmability than about propping up a token price.

While i can't speak for other ecosystems, however it is easy to argue that other blockchains pretend their token is the final prize, or that their token will accrue value. Ethereum might be the only one where $ETH truly represents productive capital and genuine value accrual back to the token. But outside of that? It’s mostly up for debate as to what you, I, and the market perceive as investable value.

Stacks is basically saying:

“We're going to be honest. The value isn't in holding $STX and hoping. It’s in building a strong ecosystem around sBTC. And to do that, we’re showing you the goat, so you know where to look.”

It’s a noble admission in an industry full of (Insert everything wrong with crypto). And for those who understand the Monty Hall Problem , it's an invitation: switch doors. Align your time, capital, and attention with where the value is moving, not where it once pretended to be.

In terms of actionable insights and personal investment strategy, I’ve been heavily invested in the Stacks ecosystem primarily through the $STX token for the past three years. At various points, it’s been my largest position. However, through the lens of the Monty Hall problem, I’ve begun gradually divesting my remaining $STX holdings.

That said, my alignment with the ethos of the Stacks ecosystem hasn’t changed. The Stacks Foundation has built something truly remarkable: a smart contract layer anchored to Bitcoin, bringing programmability to BTC in a way that doesn’t rely on Ethereum as the only smart contract platform.

This recent "door reveal" has prompted a shift in strategy toward a more ecosystem-risk-aware approach. I’m now focused on building exposure to sBTC and deploying it across the ecosystem. Given that sBTC is one of the more robust decentralised Bitcoin pegs (5,000 sBTC in stacks eco), and considering Stacks had real users even when the chain's performance was poor, this feels like a more efficient use of both capital and attention.

Caveat: acknowledging the obvious that many of these protocols haven’t launched a token yet. While there's potential for an airdrop, it doesn’t guarantee a worthwhile return on time or capital. The eventual token, if they come, may end up being low in value and not justify the risk taken.

Actionable alpha within the stacks ecosystem as a use of capital and time (Not Financial Advice):

• sBTC (bitcoin 1-1 peg)

• Hermetica / $USDH (stablecoin project on Runes & Stacks)

• Zest Protocol (yield

• Granite (yield)

• Liquidium (if sBTC support is added)

Looking at the Stacks chart, $STX is currently trading around $0.80, down roughly 79% from its all-time high of $3.80. While it’ll be interesting to see where the price heads from here, I anticipate user growth will continue, driven by sBTC and the pre-TGE protocols emerging in the ecosystem. I also believe that Stacks recent SIP-031 could set a precedent for ecosystems in the future.

Swiss,