Executive Summary
The article argues that, as U.S. crypto policy accelerates and the financial narrative shifts, ETH—thanks to its yield-bearing nature, institutional “grab-everything” demand, and its role as the settlement layer for stable-coins and real-world assets (RWAs)—will surpass Bitcoin in market-cap over the next 1–2 bull-bear cycles.

1. Un-staking Headlines Are Noise
Daily withdrawals are capped at 57 600 ETH, yet only about 15 days of backlog exist (873 k ETH). Treasury-style companies alone bought 531 k ETH last week—more than the weekly withdrawal ceiling. Even if every unstaked coin hit the spot market, demand would absorb it. We therefore view the constant “queue-full” headlines as a non-issue.

2. Corporate-Treasury & ETF Demand Is Just Warming Up

a) Treasury Stocks: Buy-and-Hold Becomes a Flywheel
Listed U.S. firms such as BitMine and SharpLink already control $20 bn worth of ETH (3.39 % of supply). Their playbook is simple:

• Issue equity → buy ETH → balance sheet grows → stock rerates → repeat.
  Unlike BTC, ETH earns 1.5 %–2.95 % from staking plus ≈ 3.5 % from DeFi liquidity—a blended 5 % “risk-free” coupon that turbo-charges the model.
  BitMine’s ATM shelf now stands at $24.5 bn; at $4 700/ETH it could add 4.26 m more ETH, taking its share toward 5 % of total supply. SharpLink’s ATM has been upsized to $6 bn, with another $6 bn earmarked via direct offerings. Neither company is close to finished.

b) ETFs: Still Early Days

• ETH ETFs have seen 14 straight weeks of inflows; assets under management (AUM) are $32.6 bn, only 18 % of the $179.5 bn parked in BTC ETFs.

• BlackRock’s ETHA alone took in $8 bn since April. If the ETH narrative sticks, matching today’s BTC-ETF size implies another $140 bn of net buying.

3. Risk Appetite Rotates from BTC to ETH

• Futures open interest: ETH share rose from 27 % to 45 % since May.

• Futures volume: ETH now commands 68 %, up from 35 %.

• On-chain whales: one dormant 2018 wallet swapped 71 k BTC for 105 k ETH and staked another 269 k ETH—now larger than the EF’s own stack.

• Whale cohorts: addresses with 10 k–100 k ETH added 200 k ETH in Q2; “mega-whales” (>100 k) have rebuilt holdings from 37.6 m to 41.1 m ETH since October 2024.

4. Bitcoin: Still Range-Bound, Not Broken
BTC’s short-term-holder cost basis is $108.8 k, acting as a cliff. Below it, a mid-cycle correction could begin; above it, holders remain in profit. Three thick demand clusters sit at $93 k–$98 k, $103 k–$108 k, and $116 k–$118 k, giving the market multiple safety nets. For now, Bitcoin trades in a wide range and is unlikely to drag the whole complex into a bear market on its own.

5. Macro Tailwinds Intensify

a) U.S. Policy Rewrites the Valuation Script
The GENIUS Stable-coin Act, signed July 2025, treats USD-pegged tokens as high-velocity, on-chain Treasuries. At $2.75 tn potential scale, stable-coin growth directly feeds activity on Ethereum—where 50 %+ of supply and 53 % of RWA already live.
Using a simple DCF (7 % growth, 9 % discount, 3× leverage factor), ETH’s network cash-flow can justify a $3 tn+ valuation—greater than Bitcoin’s present size.

b) Fed Pivot in Sight
Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech all but locked in a September cut. Historically, ETH outperforms BTC in rate-easing cycles; crypto-friendly legislation is likely to follow as Congress returns from recess.

c) Ethereum: Home Base for Stable-coins & RWAs

• 60 % of DeFi TVL ($161 bn) lives on Ethereum.

• BlackRock’s BUIDL fund parks 95 % of its AUM on Ethereum; Securitize tokenizes 80 % of its shares there.
  These rails are expanding rapidly, and every new dollar of stable-coin or RWA activity translates into incremental ETH burn and staking demand.

Conclusion
Short-term supply shocks from withdrawals are dwarfed by a wall of institutional bids. Treasury companies and ETFs have barely started, their average cost basis is high, and their ATM shelves remain wide open. At the same time, America’s regulatory pivot and the coming rate-cut cycle are rewriting the fundamental valuation logic. ETH now combines internal cash-flow generation with external policy-driven demand. Over the next 1–2 cycles, its market-cap is likely to eclipse that of Bitcoin.

Executive Summary
The article argues that, as U.S. crypto policy accelerates and the financial narrative shifts, ETH—thanks to its yield-bearing nature, institutional “grab-everything” demand, and its role as the settlement layer for stable-coins and real-world assets (RWAs)—will surpass Bitcoin in market-cap over the next 1–2 bull-bear cycles.

1. Un-staking Headlines Are Noise
Daily withdrawals are capped at 57 600 ETH, yet only about 15 days of backlog exist (873 k ETH). Treasury-style companies alone bought 531 k ETH last week—more than the weekly withdrawal ceiling. Even if every unstaked coin hit the spot market, demand would absorb it. We therefore view the constant “queue-full” headlines as a non-issue.

2. Corporate-Treasury & ETF Demand Is Just Warming Up

a) Treasury Stocks: Buy-and-Hold Becomes a Flywheel
Listed U.S. firms such as BitMine and SharpLink already control $20 bn worth of ETH (3.39 % of supply). Their playbook is simple:

• Issue equity → buy ETH → balance sheet grows → stock rerates → repeat.
  Unlike BTC, ETH earns 1.5 %–2.95 % from staking plus ≈ 3.5 % from DeFi liquidity—a blended 5 % “risk-free” coupon that turbo-charges the model.
  BitMine’s ATM shelf now stands at $24.5 bn; at $4 700/ETH it could add 4.26 m more ETH, taking its share toward 5 % of total supply. SharpLink’s ATM has been upsized to $6 bn, with another $6 bn earmarked via direct offerings. Neither company is close to finished.

b) ETFs: Still Early Days

• ETH ETFs have seen 14 straight weeks of inflows; assets under management (AUM) are $32.6 bn, only 18 % of the $179.5 bn parked in BTC ETFs.

• BlackRock’s ETHA alone took in $8 bn since April. If the ETH narrative sticks, matching today’s BTC-ETF size implies another $140 bn of net buying.

3. Risk Appetite Rotates from BTC to ETH

• Futures open interest: ETH share rose from 27 % to 45 % since May.

• Futures volume: ETH now commands 68 %, up from 35 %.

• On-chain whales: one dormant 2018 wallet swapped 71 k BTC for 105 k ETH and staked another 269 k ETH—now larger than the EF’s own stack.

• Whale cohorts: addresses with 10 k–100 k ETH added 200 k ETH in Q2; “mega-whales” (>100 k) have rebuilt holdings from 37.6 m to 41.1 m ETH since October 2024.

4. Bitcoin: Still Range-Bound, Not Broken
BTC’s short-term-holder cost basis is $108.8 k, acting as a cliff. Below it, a mid-cycle correction could begin; above it, holders remain in profit. Three thick demand clusters sit at $93 k–$98 k, $103 k–$108 k, and $116 k–$118 k, giving the market multiple safety nets. For now, Bitcoin trades in a wide range and is unlikely to drag the whole complex into a bear market on its own.

5. Macro Tailwinds Intensify

a) U.S. Policy Rewrites the Valuation Script
The GENIUS Stable-coin Act, signed July 2025, treats USD-pegged tokens as high-velocity, on-chain Treasuries. At $2.75 tn potential scale, stable-coin growth directly feeds activity on Ethereum—where 50 %+ of supply and 53 % of RWA already live.
Using a simple DCF (7 % growth, 9 % discount, 3× leverage factor), ETH’s network cash-flow can justify a $3 tn+ valuation—greater than Bitcoin’s present size.

b) Fed Pivot in Sight
Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech all but locked in a September cut. Historically, ETH outperforms BTC in rate-easing cycles; crypto-friendly legislation is likely to follow as Congress returns from recess.

c) Ethereum: Home Base for Stable-coins & RWAs

• 60 % of DeFi TVL ($161 bn) lives on Ethereum.

• BlackRock’s BUIDL fund parks 95 % of its AUM on Ethereum; Securitize tokenizes 80 % of its shares there.
  These rails are expanding rapidly, and every new dollar of stable-coin or RWA activity translates into incremental ETH burn and staking demand.

Conclusion
Short-term supply shocks from withdrawals are dwarfed by a wall of institutional bids. Treasury companies and ETFs have barely started, their average cost basis is high, and their ATM shelves remain wide open. At the same time, America’s regulatory pivot and the coming rate-cut cycle are rewriting the fundamental valuation logic. ETH now combines internal cash-flow generation with external policy-driven demand. Over the next 1–2 cycles, its market-cap is likely to eclipse that of Bitcoin.