Gm,

So the other day I was watching the Chargers-Raiders game with my dad and he was pretty confident the Chargers would win. And like any rational person would do, I decided to take his bet on Polymarket (first time using it).

It was actually a great experience. The app was very lively and you could see in real time how predictoooors changed their positions. For example, if the Chargers scored, their odds of winning would go up. The chart painted a real time picture of everyone's perception.

The next day, I was on Discord talking to a piece of broccoli about how cool prediction markets were. We started talking about how we could use that model for something other than predictions. Maybe betting on opinions could be interesting.

So we got to work. We knew we wanted a model similar to Polymarket because the user experience is so simple: you buy a YES or a NO token, and it eventually resolves to either $1 or $0. For example, say you can buy YES for $0.50 and the market resolves to YES, that $0.50 would turn $1.00, a 2x.

Our first instinct for the opinion markets was to strip out the resolution mechanics that prediction markets have. We imagined these YES/NO tokens for opinions could trade forever. For example, in a "Cats are better than dogs" market, if you buy a YES token, you aren’t waiting for a resolution. You're just betting that other people will eventually agree with you and buy your token for a higher price. And that made sense because how are you supposed to even resolve something like that?

But that's where we ran into some problems. Why would someone update their position on the market? There's no end date, so what are they hoping for? That other people do? That's not enough of a reason. We realized you actually need a resolution to force the market one way or the other, so people can make money and keep playing the game.

Think about it, what major event would be needed for the public to really believe that cats are better than dogs? It feels like most opinions would just be stagnant forever and traders would be very bored.

So we knew we needed a resolution. But how do you resolve something subjective? It's easy for Polymarket, they can just look at the final score. But for cats and dogs, how do we know who’s right?

This is our solution: some random person decides "this one' prolly better". JK. That's too gameable, they could pick the winning side every time and make bank. So we needed something unbiased, that couldn't game the system, maybe AI? So yeah, the markets will be resolved by an AI that analyzes the global online conversation about a topic.

Imagine a market is created for "Cats are better than dogs." It would use an AI intelligence platform (like Kaito or Cookies) that ingests and analyzes huge amounts of relevant data from all over the internet. This includes social media sentiment from platforms like Twitter and Farcaster, news articles, and other online discussions.

Then, when the resolution date hits, an AI agent gets to work. It sifts through all the collected data to analyze the public discourse. It assesses the strength, prevalence, and sentiment of arguments for the YES side ("cats are better") versus the NO side ("dogs are better"). Based on this comprehensive analysis of the digital narrative, it determines which side has demonstrated more persuasive power online (tbh I’m just a smooth brain solidity dev so I have no idea how this is gonna work but anything’s possible, right?).

Finally, it publishes a report summarizing its findings, highlighting trending arguments and key shifts in sentiment, before declaring a winner. If it resolves YES, the YES token becomes worth $1 and the NO token becomes worth $0, just like on Polymarket.

This is Prolymarket.

It’s a market for opinions. It’s a game where you win by understanding what the world believes and predicting where that belief is heading. A place to track, and trade on, the consensus of the crowd.

As always, thanks for reading!!

Gm,

So the other day I was watching the Chargers-Raiders game with my dad and he was pretty confident the Chargers would win. And like any rational person would do, I decided to take his bet on Polymarket (first time using it).

It was actually a great experience. The app was very lively and you could see in real time how predictoooors changed their positions. For example, if the Chargers scored, their odds of winning would go up. The chart painted a real time picture of everyone's perception.

The next day, I was on Discord talking to a piece of broccoli about how cool prediction markets were. We started talking about how we could use that model for something other than predictions. Maybe betting on opinions could be interesting.

So we got to work. We knew we wanted a model similar to Polymarket because the user experience is so simple: you buy a YES or a NO token, and it eventually resolves to either $1 or $0. For example, say you can buy YES for $0.50 and the market resolves to YES, that $0.50 would turn $1.00, a 2x.

Our first instinct for the opinion markets was to strip out the resolution mechanics that prediction markets have. We imagined these YES/NO tokens for opinions could trade forever. For example, in a "Cats are better than dogs" market, if you buy a YES token, you aren’t waiting for a resolution. You're just betting that other people will eventually agree with you and buy your token for a higher price. And that made sense because how are you supposed to even resolve something like that?

But that's where we ran into some problems. Why would someone update their position on the market? There's no end date, so what are they hoping for? That other people do? That's not enough of a reason. We realized you actually need a resolution to force the market one way or the other, so people can make money and keep playing the game.

Think about it, what major event would be needed for the public to really believe that cats are better than dogs? It feels like most opinions would just be stagnant forever and traders would be very bored.

So we knew we needed a resolution. But how do you resolve something subjective? It's easy for Polymarket, they can just look at the final score. But for cats and dogs, how do we know who’s right?

This is our solution: some random person decides "this one' prolly better". JK. That's too gameable, they could pick the winning side every time and make bank. So we needed something unbiased, that couldn't game the system, maybe AI? So yeah, the markets will be resolved by an AI that analyzes the global online conversation about a topic.

Imagine a market is created for "Cats are better than dogs." It would use an AI intelligence platform (like Kaito or Cookies) that ingests and analyzes huge amounts of relevant data from all over the internet. This includes social media sentiment from platforms like Twitter and Farcaster, news articles, and other online discussions.

Then, when the resolution date hits, an AI agent gets to work. It sifts through all the collected data to analyze the public discourse. It assesses the strength, prevalence, and sentiment of arguments for the YES side ("cats are better") versus the NO side ("dogs are better"). Based on this comprehensive analysis of the digital narrative, it determines which side has demonstrated more persuasive power online (tbh I’m just a smooth brain solidity dev so I have no idea how this is gonna work but anything’s possible, right?).

Finally, it publishes a report summarizing its findings, highlighting trending arguments and key shifts in sentiment, before declaring a winner. If it resolves YES, the YES token becomes worth $1 and the NO token becomes worth $0, just like on Polymarket.

This is Prolymarket.

It’s a market for opinions. It’s a game where you win by understanding what the world believes and predicting where that belief is heading. A place to track, and trade on, the consensus of the crowd.

As always, thanks for reading!!