The global fiscal easing cycle has begun, and Trump's geopolitical maneuvering has laid a solid foundation for financial deregulation and sustained risk appetite within the dollar system.

1/ ETH Outperforms as Risk Appetite Returns

• Following our May outlook, continued risk-on sentiment has driven prices higher, with ETH delivering significant alpha and becoming the market's hottest topic.

• Despite short-term speculative rotations, our long-term view on ETH remains unchanged—ETF staking, mid-cycle rate cuts, and panic buying remain key milestones to watch.

2/ BTC Absorbs Massive Selling Pressure with Remarkable Stability

• Bitcoin faced over $10B in new selling pressure in July, yet its realized volatility stayed below 10%, demonstrating extraordinary holder conviction around $120K.

• Such supply shocks only reshape the cycle’s structure—not its direction—reinforcing Bitcoin’s resilience as a macro asset.

3/ Global Liquidity Wave Supports Crypto’s Next Leg Up

• Trump’s policies are accelerating financial deregulation and risk-taking, creating fertile ground for crypto’s next surge.

• The market is now in the mid-to-late stages of repricing rate cuts and risk appetite, making short-term technical trading a low-EV game.

July saw a return to the low-volatility, grind-higher regime familiar in recent years, with momentum concentrated in event-driven plays like Meta and ETH. Notably:

• Macro Drivers:

  • Trump’s dominance has subdued global dissent (outside major powers) and forced even Fed hawks into dovish postures.

  • Dollar institutions are aggressively rebuilding positions, reviving "American exceptionalism" narratives.

• Regulatory Tailwinds:

  • Financial deregulation (e.g., stablecoin laws, on-chain finance expansions) and leverage easing are fueling institutional adoption.

• Market Structure:

  • Trading volumes surged (up 56% MoM to $161B/day), but this is now a neutral factor—demand must be scrutinized beyond surface-level hype.

For RMB markets, our late-2024 thesis is playing out: tech (chips/AI) and inflation-sensitive commodities (chemicals/rare metals) are the clearest opportunities.

As liquidity cycles peak, the focus shifts to spotting the next inflection point. While short-term noise abounds, the path remains clear:

• ETH: Await ETF staking approvals and the "panic bid" phase post-rate cuts.

• BTC: Structural supply tightness persists—any dip near $75K is a buying opportunity.

• Global Macro: Watch for divergences between Fed rhetoric and market euphoria, which could signal a tactical exit window.

Amid the churn of momentum and fading "old crypto" hands, we remain focused on the dollar cycle’s next top. Ride the wave—and have fun.

Data Sources: Gate.io, WEEX, MVC Reports.
Disclaimer: Market risks persist; positions should align with macro liquidity trends.

The global fiscal easing cycle has begun, and Trump's geopolitical maneuvering has laid a solid foundation for financial deregulation and sustained risk appetite within the dollar system.

1/ ETH Outperforms as Risk Appetite Returns

• Following our May outlook, continued risk-on sentiment has driven prices higher, with ETH delivering significant alpha and becoming the market's hottest topic.

• Despite short-term speculative rotations, our long-term view on ETH remains unchanged—ETF staking, mid-cycle rate cuts, and panic buying remain key milestones to watch.

2/ BTC Absorbs Massive Selling Pressure with Remarkable Stability

• Bitcoin faced over $10B in new selling pressure in July, yet its realized volatility stayed below 10%, demonstrating extraordinary holder conviction around $120K.

• Such supply shocks only reshape the cycle’s structure—not its direction—reinforcing Bitcoin’s resilience as a macro asset.

3/ Global Liquidity Wave Supports Crypto’s Next Leg Up

• Trump’s policies are accelerating financial deregulation and risk-taking, creating fertile ground for crypto’s next surge.

• The market is now in the mid-to-late stages of repricing rate cuts and risk appetite, making short-term technical trading a low-EV game.

July saw a return to the low-volatility, grind-higher regime familiar in recent years, with momentum concentrated in event-driven plays like Meta and ETH. Notably:

• Macro Drivers:

  • Trump’s dominance has subdued global dissent (outside major powers) and forced even Fed hawks into dovish postures.

  • Dollar institutions are aggressively rebuilding positions, reviving "American exceptionalism" narratives.

• Regulatory Tailwinds:

  • Financial deregulation (e.g., stablecoin laws, on-chain finance expansions) and leverage easing are fueling institutional adoption.

• Market Structure:

  • Trading volumes surged (up 56% MoM to $161B/day), but this is now a neutral factor—demand must be scrutinized beyond surface-level hype.

For RMB markets, our late-2024 thesis is playing out: tech (chips/AI) and inflation-sensitive commodities (chemicals/rare metals) are the clearest opportunities.

As liquidity cycles peak, the focus shifts to spotting the next inflection point. While short-term noise abounds, the path remains clear:

• ETH: Await ETF staking approvals and the "panic bid" phase post-rate cuts.

• BTC: Structural supply tightness persists—any dip near $75K is a buying opportunity.

• Global Macro: Watch for divergences between Fed rhetoric and market euphoria, which could signal a tactical exit window.

Amid the churn of momentum and fading "old crypto" hands, we remain focused on the dollar cycle’s next top. Ride the wave—and have fun.

Data Sources: Gate.io, WEEX, MVC Reports.
Disclaimer: Market risks persist; positions should align with macro liquidity trends.