Like many in the crypto industry, I’ve invested in a variety of altcoins, hoping they’d outshine Bitcoin. We all know how that dream has turned out so far 😭 .

Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, which benefit from substantial ETF-driven capital inflows, alt coin performance hinges on the availability of on-chain stablecoins—primarily USDT and USDC at present. One indicator I frequently rely on is USDC.D+USDT.D, which tracks the combined market cap dominance of USDC and USDT. The greater the stablecoin dominance, the lower altcoin prices tend to fall. Take a look at this comparison between ETH’s price (the king of altcoins, shown in red) and the USDC.D+USDT.D chart—they’re almost perfectly inversely correlated.

As shown in the below chart, stablecoin dominance hit a low in early December 2024 and began climbing until March 11th—not long ago. Predictably, altcoin prices have suffered a brutal downturn during this period. Fortunately, dominance has recently started to ease slightly. It’s too early to confirm a trend reversal, but one small detail offers some comfort: dominance has been lingering below the 20-day moving average (shown in yellow) for several days now. If this persists, that moving average could shift from a prior support to a resistance level. I’d love to see the dominance chart eventually at least slip back into its previous trend channel (the area between the two green dashed lines) and retest the 200-day moving average (in blue) in the near future.

I recognize that there is lots of uncertainty in the market, with macroeconomic conditions unfavorable to risk assets. There seems to be a consensus that short to medium term pain lies ahead before QE and liquidity returns later of the year. It all sounds logical. Yet, markets don't always follow a "logical" path. Instead, they follow a path of the least resistance-the one requiring the least capital to shift prices. When most market participants align their views and trades, the "logical" trajectory quickly becomes the most obstructed. This is precisely why I’d be wary if the prevailing belief is that Bitcoin’s bull market won’t peak until late 2025. If that’s the consensus, it’s almost certain to conclude well before then.

The market is a formidable force. Let's be patient and watch.

Like many in the crypto industry, I’ve invested in a variety of altcoins, hoping they’d outshine Bitcoin. We all know how that dream has turned out so far 😭 .

Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, which benefit from substantial ETF-driven capital inflows, alt coin performance hinges on the availability of on-chain stablecoins—primarily USDT and USDC at present. One indicator I frequently rely on is USDC.D+USDT.D, which tracks the combined market cap dominance of USDC and USDT. The greater the stablecoin dominance, the lower altcoin prices tend to fall. Take a look at this comparison between ETH’s price (the king of altcoins, shown in red) and the USDC.D+USDT.D chart—they’re almost perfectly inversely correlated.

As shown in the below chart, stablecoin dominance hit a low in early December 2024 and began climbing until March 11th—not long ago. Predictably, altcoin prices have suffered a brutal downturn during this period. Fortunately, dominance has recently started to ease slightly. It’s too early to confirm a trend reversal, but one small detail offers some comfort: dominance has been lingering below the 20-day moving average (shown in yellow) for several days now. If this persists, that moving average could shift from a prior support to a resistance level. I’d love to see the dominance chart eventually at least slip back into its previous trend channel (the area between the two green dashed lines) and retest the 200-day moving average (in blue) in the near future.

I recognize that there is lots of uncertainty in the market, with macroeconomic conditions unfavorable to risk assets. There seems to be a consensus that short to medium term pain lies ahead before QE and liquidity returns later of the year. It all sounds logical. Yet, markets don't always follow a "logical" path. Instead, they follow a path of the least resistance-the one requiring the least capital to shift prices. When most market participants align their views and trades, the "logical" trajectory quickly becomes the most obstructed. This is precisely why I’d be wary if the prevailing belief is that Bitcoin’s bull market won’t peak until late 2025. If that’s the consensus, it’s almost certain to conclude well before then.

The market is a formidable force. Let's be patient and watch.