For half a century, we’ve used Everett Rogers’ diffusion curve and Geoffrey Moore’s chasm as the go-to maps for technology adoption. Rogers gave us the S-curve of innovators → early adopters → early/late majority → laggards, while Moore sharpened the insight that there’s a deadly chasm between visionaries and pragmatists, where many products stall and fail.

That map still matters. But 2025 looks different. Adoption isn’t a single S-curve anymore. It’s a series of expansions and contractions — waves of hype, retreat, iteration, and re‑expansion. To navigate these cycles, we need to update the model.

Rogers defined the stages:

• Innovators crave novelty and status.

• Early Adopters translate vision into tangible value.

• Early Majority demand proof and stability.

• Late Majority adopt under external pressure.

• Laggards resist until the very end.

The framework remains useful for understanding who shows up, though it doesn’t explain modern stop-start adoption dynamics.

Moore’s insight—the gap between early adopters and pragmatists—remains valid. But adoption is no longer a one‑off jump. Instead, today’s world presents multiple mini‑chasms, such as:

• From a hype wave to sustained utility.

• From early use to durable workflows.

• From status games to proven, pragmatic value.

Most projects don’t fail just once—they stumble every time they approach a new boundary.

In the 2010s, Jeff Bussgang translated Moore’s theory into startup vocabulary by linking the chasm to product-market fit (PMF). Founders were told: don’t scale before PMF, target a beachhead market, and build traction before broadening.

That advice still matters—especially in SaaS and enterprise. But in 2025, it’s no longer enough. Bussgang assumes a single crossing of the chasm. He predates global distribution by default (via app stores, crypto platforms, AI APIs), and doesn’t account for status-driven adoption models (Wei) or room-to-room innovation strategy (Martin).

Eugene Wei reframes adoption through status as a service. Platforms succeed by creating new status games:

• Innovators are drawn in by the chance to gain status.

• Early Adopters legitimize the platform.

• Status drives initial adoption—but saturation erodes its power, leading to contraction.

Many launch surges fade not for lack of utility—but because status alone wasn’t enough to bridge the chasm.

Roger Martin introduces the rooms metaphor:

• Each “room” is a frontier—be it a category, tech, or cultural space.

• Rooms eventually saturate—competition rises, margins thin, novelty fades.

• Winners don't just excel in one room—they move to the next room before the first one yields diminished returns.

The chasm is not just danger—it’s a door to a new room. If you fail to cross, you get stuck.

Today, adoption unfolds like this:

1. Expansion → a hype wave draws innovators.

2. Contraction → casual users drop off; only true believers remain.

3. Iteration → builders refine the product based on core users.

4. Re-expansion → a new wave, possibly crossing a new threshold.

This loop repeats in every room—each wave tests your ability to cross again.

• Recognize that you’ll face multiple chasms, not just one.

• Design for innovators first—they lead the way and unlock new rooms.

• Expect contractions—survivors are your signals for iteration, not failure.

• Distribution is oxygen—communities, networks, and cultural channels fuel waves.

• PMF is dynamic—it’s not a one-time milestone, but an evolving threshold.

• Web3 is still in Rooms 1–2. Innovators and Early Adopters dominate. Waves prove what’s possible but collapse without pragmatist value.

• AI assistants have traction — but haven’t yet saturated. ChatGPT has ~700M weekly active users, a huge number — but only about 10% of global smartphone owners. That’s big enough to matter, but not yet ubiquitous like search, messaging, or payments. The open question: will AI shift from episodic novelty into daily reliance across the Early Majority?

• Room 4 is maturing, not frontier. The iPhone and App Store are saturated and function as infrastructure — they’re no longer frontiers of growth. Wearables are well on their way: over 450M users worldwide, with more than a third of U.S. adults now using them. Globally, adoption is uneven, but the category is transitioning from novelty to mainstream.

The opportunity isn’t to polish inside a room. It’s to find the next door, ride the next wave, and cross the next threshold before the room gets crowded.

Rogers gave us the curve. Moore warned us of the chasm. Wei explained why the first wave emerges. And Martin showed us how to stay strategic by moving room to room.

In 2025, adoption isn’t a one-time leap. It’s a series of waves and repeated thresholds. Winners aren’t the ones who ride the biggest wave, but the ones who survive contraction and keep opening the next door — and riding the next wave.