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In the early hours of April 17, Base made a high-profile move by creating MEME coins such as "Base is for everyone." However, this carefully orchestrated attempt to reignite on-chain cultural enthusiasm quickly spiraled out of control, pushing Base into the eye of a public storm. Yet, in a surprising twist, as the "failures" were remixed and turned into viral memes, the MEME coin prices staged a dramatic V-shaped recovery, sending on-chain sentiment on a rollercoaster ride. Author: Nancy, PAN...

5 Charts to Decode Today’s Bitcoin Market: Where Exactly Are We?
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Trump's Crypto Gamble: A Power Play of Politics, Money, and Technology
On March 6, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a landmark executive order announcing the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and the inclusion of other cryptocurrencies in the national digital asset reserve. This policy marks a significant strategic shift for the U.S. in the cryptocurrency space, aiming to solidify its position as the "global hub of cryptocurrency."Policy Content and DetailsTrump's executive order consists of two main components: the establishment of a Bitcoin ...
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Base's Official Token Launch Turns into a Marketing Rollercoaster, MEME Coins Crash and Soar to New …
In the early hours of April 17, Base made a high-profile move by creating MEME coins such as "Base is for everyone." However, this carefully orchestrated attempt to reignite on-chain cultural enthusiasm quickly spiraled out of control, pushing Base into the eye of a public storm. Yet, in a surprising twist, as the "failures" were remixed and turned into viral memes, the MEME coin prices staged a dramatic V-shaped recovery, sending on-chain sentiment on a rollercoaster ride. Author: Nancy, PAN...

5 Charts to Decode Today’s Bitcoin Market: Where Exactly Are We?
$ERROR

Trump's Crypto Gamble: A Power Play of Politics, Money, and Technology
On March 6, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a landmark executive order announcing the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and the inclusion of other cryptocurrencies in the national digital asset reserve. This policy marks a significant strategic shift for the U.S. in the cryptocurrency space, aiming to solidify its position as the "global hub of cryptocurrency."Policy Content and DetailsTrump's executive order consists of two main components: the establishment of a Bitcoin ...
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In May 2025, Hong Kong’s Legislative Council unanimously passed the Stablecoin Ordinance, becoming the first jurisdiction to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins.
On the surface, this appears to be another milestone in fintech progress. But beneath lies a power struggle over the future of global monetary order.
For decades, dollar hegemony relied on the trinity of oil, U.S. Treasuries, and SWIFT. Yet with the rise of blockchain, a new form of "on-chain dollars"—stablecoins—is quietly bypassing traditional financial barriers, reshaping global capital flows.
The market cap of dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT and USDC has surpassed $250 billion, with daily trading volumes exceeding Visa and Mastercard combined. These assets circulate directly on blockchains, functioning as "offshore dollars" for the digital age.
But stablecoins are far from a neutral financial innovation.
In March 2025, the U.S. Congress passed the STABLE Act, mandating that stablecoins must be 100% backed by dollars or U.S. Treasuries and subject to Federal Reserve oversight.
This law effectively integrates the crypto market into the dollar system, turning global stablecoin users into "invisible buyers" of U.S. debt.
A Deutsche Bank report reveals that USDT and USDC alone hold over $120 billion in Treasuries—enough to influence short-term yields.
More critically, stablecoins are becoming a "soft tool" for U.S. financial sanctions.
After the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. froze Russian reserves. Yet today, sanctioned nations use USDT for oil trades—ironically relying on U.S.-approved issuers like Circle, which can freeze addresses at Washington’s request.
Meanwhile, the EU and China are racing to build alternatives.
Digital yuan now covers 38% of ASEAN-Middle East trade, while SWIFT tests a CBDC settlement platform with the ECB.
The outcome of this contest will determine whether global finance remains dominated by "on-chain dollars" or fragments into a multipolar digital currency order.
Are stablecoins the perpetuation of dollar hegemony—or the beginning of its end? The answer may lie in the digital tide of the U.S. Treasury market.
In June 2025, the U.S. GENIUS Act took effect, marking a historic shift: all compliant stablecoins must be 100% dollar- or Treasury-backed.
This law not only formalizes America’s grip on crypto but exposes a harsh truth: Stablecoin supremacy is rooted in the irreplaceability of the U.S. Treasury market.
Since Bretton Woods collapsed, dollar dominance evolved from petrodollars to SWIFT. Now, stablecoins are its blockchain-era vessel.
USDT and USDC—worth $250 billion combined—are the most active "offshore dollars" in history.
Yet their success stems not from tech innovation but a deeper financial logic: No sovereign bond market matches U.S. Treasuries in liquidity, safety, and global acceptance.
The Treasury market’s dominance is a product of history and system design.
Post-WWII, the U.S. held 74.5% of global gold reserves to back the dollar. After Nixon ended gold convertibility in 1971, Treasuries became the new anchor.
Today, $36 trillion in U.S. debt trades $600 billion daily—eclipsing the eurozone, Japan, and China combined.
This depth forces stablecoin issuers (like Tether and Circle) to park 80%+ reserves in short-term Treasuries, as no other bonds offer comparable liquidity during crises.
By contrast, challengers face an "asset desert":
EURO stablecoins struggle with fragmented eurozone debt (German bond liquidity is 1/5 of Treasuries).
Hong Kong’s multi-currency stablecoins hit a wall with China’s capital controls.
Russia-Iran "gold-backed stablecoins" falter due to gold’s tiny market (1/10 of Treasuries).
The crux? Stablecoins don’t just hold Treasuries—they feed dollar hegemony.
Deutsche Bank estimates USDT and USDC alone funnel $120 billion of global散户 capital into U.S. deficit financing.
This creates a perverse cycle:
More stablecoin adoption → Higher Treasury demand.
Higher Treasury demand → Stronger dollar liquidity.
Stronger dollar liquidity → Unshakable stablecoin credibility.
But the system is fragile.
The 2024 SVB collapse briefly depegged USDC, exposing stablecoins’ reliance on traditional finance. A U.S. debt crisis (now 125% of GDP) could trigger a "chain-run" on stablecoins.
Yet replicating this model is a catch-22:
No Treasury-grade assets? No globally trusted stablecoin.
Rely on Treasuries? Become dollar vassals.
This echoes the 1971 gold crisis—but now, the "hard backing" isn’t gold, but Treasuries.
America’s true genius? Turning stablecoins’ "decentralized" veneer into a new financial hegemony.
In Q1 2025, a Russian energy firm paid Turkey $120 million for gas via USDT—in 12 seconds, with $5 fees.
This trade bypassed SWIFT and banks, yet was still dollar-denominated.
This is stablecoin hegemony’s ultimate feat: Even outside traditional finance, global trade remains dollar-dominated.
USDT and USDC’s 83% market share isn’t just due to Treasury backing. They’ve built a self-reinforcing "digital dollar ecosystem", trapping rivals in a chicken-and-egg dilemma.
Nearly all crypto exchanges (Binance, Coinbase) price assets in USDT/USDC, not BTC/ETH.
EUROe and other alternatives suffer 1% of USDT’s liquidity, with crippling slippage.
Stablecoins upgrade dollar clearing to real-time blockchain rails, penetrating markets banks can’t:
Nigerians pay 1/10 the cost for remittances via USDT.
Argentine shops prefer USDT over 200%-inflation pesos.
Here, stablecoins don’t replace local currencies—they erase them.
The U.S. GENIUS Act imposes strict reserve rules but no global limits.
Meanwhile, EU’s MiCA caps non-euro stablecoins at €200M daily, and Hong Kong demands bank-grade licenses.
This asymmetry lets USDT/USDC expand freely, while rivals choke on compliance costs.
BRICS nations push non-dollar trade, Iran launches gold-backed oil coins, and SWIFT tests CBDC alternatives.
Yet 99% of stablecoin trades ($280B daily) are dollar-pegged.
When Russian firms buy Chinese drones with USDT, or Turkish workers take USDC salaries, "de-dollarization" crumbles in practice.
The 2024 SVB crisis showed stablecoins are tethered to traditional banks.
In 2025, the U.S. Treasury’s threat to sanction USDT addresses revealed the "centralized leash" beneath "decentralized" claims.
Yet paradoxically, each crisis strengthens dollar stablecoins—as users flee to "on-chain Treasuries", not BTC or gold.
History rhymes:
1970s: Petrodollars tied oil trade to SWIFT.
2020s: Stablecoins tie crypto to Treasuries.
The result? Dollar dominance, repackaged in code.
April 2025: The STABLE Act enacts a silent "purge" of stablecoins.
Its core demands:
100% dollar/Treasury backing.
Fed oversight.
Ban on non-dollar stablecoins in the U.S.
This "financial stability" veneer masks a systematic annexation of crypto—turning "decentralized" finance into the dollar’s "on-chain branch."
The Act forces issuers to:
Register in the U.S.
Hold reserves at FDIC-insured banks.
Submit to real-time Fed monitoring.
Only U.S. giants (Circle, JPMorgan) can comply, while offshore rivals face prohibitive costs.
Example: Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Ordinance allows multi-currency pegs—but entering the U.S. requires proving "substantial equivalence," a vague standard that blocks most.
The U.S. bans its users from "non-compliant" foreign stablecoins (e.g., some offshore USDT), pressuring exchanges to delist them.
In May 2025, Binance and Coinbase dropped HKDG (a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin) to "avoid U.S. regulatory risks."
This "regulatory siege" stifles alternatives, forcing markets back to dollar stablecoins.
The Act bans algorithmic stablecoins (like UST) and sidelines overcollateralized ones (like DAI).
Even DeFi must bend to the Fed’s will—e.g., DAI reducing USDC backing for gold and BTC, shrinking its liquidity.
While the U.S. tightly regulates issuers, it doesn’t restrict their global reach.
By 2025, USDC operates in 138 countries, while MiCA’s €200M daily cap traps EUROe in Europe.
The 2024 SVB collapse exposed stablecoins’ bank dependency—yet panic drove users deeper into USDC/USDT, as no alternatives offered comparable liquidity.
History’s lesson:
1970s: Petrodollars locked oil trade into SWIFT.
2020s: Stablecoin laws lock crypto into Treasuries.
While nations debate regulation, the U.S. has declared: The future of on-chain finance will be written in dollars.
May 2025: María, a Buenos Aires grocer, pays a Chinese supplier in USDT—her shield against the peso’s collapse. Unbeknownst to her, those USDT reserves fund the U.S. deficit via Treasuries.
This encapsulates stablecoins’ "dual nature":
A "financial lifeboat" for emerging markets.
The "digital veins" of dollar hegemony.
Proponents hail stablecoins for:
Turkish merchants dodging lira devaluation.
Nigerian workers receiving USDC remittances.
Venezuelans storing wealth in DAI.
With $27.6T in annual cross-border volume (60% to emerging markets), it seems like empowerment.
In truth, it’s the dollar system’s on-chain expansion.
2024 SVB collapse: USDC depegged to $0.87, wiping 13% from Filipino workers’ wages.
2025 Fed hikes: USDT fluctuations forced Turkish importers to overpay for lira.
Reality: Stablecoin users bear dollar volatility risks without Fed protections.
$50+ Ethereum gas fees exclude the poor.
80% of stablecoin liquidity is held by 5% of addresses.
The "democratization" narrative masks deepening inequality.
Southeast Asian firms pay wages in USDC to:
Bypass local minimum wages.
Dodge social security.
One Filipino outsourcer cuts 30% of pay citing "exchange rate risks."
Stablecoins are a financial sleight-of-hand:
Emerging markets get dollar safety—but become Treasury buyers.
Crypto idealists cheer "decentralization"—while Wall Street regains control.
By 2028, stablecoins may absorb $2T in Treasury demand—paid for by the global poor.
María’s "lifeboat" is tied to the USS Dollar Hegemony, sailing toward deeper inequality.
June 2025: Two pivotal events:
The Fed tests "FedNow+"—a CBDC clearing system.
USDC hits $200B, becoming the 5th-largest dollar asset.
This raises the question: Are stablecoins a transitional phase—or the final form of global finance?
130+ nations are exploring CBDCs (e.g., digital yuan, euro).
Digital yuan already covers 38% of ASEAN-Mideast trade.
Argument: Once CBDCs enable real-time cross-border payments, stablecoins become redundant.
But: U.S. political resistance delays a digital dollar, leaving space for private stablecoins.
USDT/USDC already exceed many national currencies in circulation.
By 2030, stablecoins could hit $5T (1/4 of global FX reserves).
Key shift: Stablecoins are building independent financial infra:
$800B locked in DeFi (trade, derivatives, lending).
Circle now offers on-chain credit for SMEs.
Tether’s network replaces parts of SWIFT.
Challenges:
Regulatory capture (e.g., GENIUS Act turns stablecoins into "Treasury funnels").
Systemic risks (e.g., USDC’s $3.3B SVB exposure).
China: CBDCs ensure state control.
EU: MiCA protects euro dominance.
U.S.: "Regulatory capture" co-opts stablecoins into dollar system.
Emerging markets are trapped:
Argentina needs USDT for inflation hedging—but can’t audit reserves.
Nigeria’s cNGN stablecoin fails due to low liquidity.
No sovereign backing? Stablecoins remain dollar-dependent.
1971: Nixon ended gold convertibility; petrodollars emerged.
2020s: Stablecoins become the new dollar vehicle.
The Stablecoin Ordinance reveals the real battle: Control over settlement networks, not currencies.
Final Answer:
If CBDCs win, stablecoins fade.
If stablecoins endure, they’ll be dollar proxies.
The Fed’s quiet truth: "The dollar has never been stronger—in reality or on-chain."
Stablecoins are history’s finest monetary paradox:
"Decentralized" in name, but tighter than SWIFT in practice.
"Democratic" in theory, but creating billions of "on-chain dollar serfs."
"Censorship-resistant" in hype, but ultimately extending U.S. sanctions.
The vicious cycle:
The U.S. regulates stablecoins into dollar servitude.
The EU protects the euro but tolerates USDC.
Emerging markets curse dollar dominance—while locking savings in USDT.
The 2024 SVB crisis exposed the truth:
On-chain dollars are shadows of bank dollars.
Global users are addicted to dollar stablecoins—even when they bleed.
This mirrors 16th-century Spain’s silver empire: When Potosí’s mines dried up, the world realized it was chained to silver.
Today, we’re replaying that tragedy—with 21st-century blockchain.
The oldest law of money endures: Credit is not about technology, but violence and belief.
No algorithm can defy a U.S. carrier group or Treasury yield curve.
But stablecoin hegemony also exposes the dollar’s Achilles’ heel: When traditional banks crumble, on-chain dollars bleed too.
Yet like drowning men clutching straws, the world will keep buying USDT in a crisis—knowing it’s poison, but seeing no alternative.
The real innovation of the 2020s? Not overthrowing hegemony, but teaching it to breathe in code.
In May 2025, Hong Kong’s Legislative Council unanimously passed the Stablecoin Ordinance, becoming the first jurisdiction to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins.
On the surface, this appears to be another milestone in fintech progress. But beneath lies a power struggle over the future of global monetary order.
For decades, dollar hegemony relied on the trinity of oil, U.S. Treasuries, and SWIFT. Yet with the rise of blockchain, a new form of "on-chain dollars"—stablecoins—is quietly bypassing traditional financial barriers, reshaping global capital flows.
The market cap of dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT and USDC has surpassed $250 billion, with daily trading volumes exceeding Visa and Mastercard combined. These assets circulate directly on blockchains, functioning as "offshore dollars" for the digital age.
But stablecoins are far from a neutral financial innovation.
In March 2025, the U.S. Congress passed the STABLE Act, mandating that stablecoins must be 100% backed by dollars or U.S. Treasuries and subject to Federal Reserve oversight.
This law effectively integrates the crypto market into the dollar system, turning global stablecoin users into "invisible buyers" of U.S. debt.
A Deutsche Bank report reveals that USDT and USDC alone hold over $120 billion in Treasuries—enough to influence short-term yields.
More critically, stablecoins are becoming a "soft tool" for U.S. financial sanctions.
After the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. froze Russian reserves. Yet today, sanctioned nations use USDT for oil trades—ironically relying on U.S.-approved issuers like Circle, which can freeze addresses at Washington’s request.
Meanwhile, the EU and China are racing to build alternatives.
Digital yuan now covers 38% of ASEAN-Middle East trade, while SWIFT tests a CBDC settlement platform with the ECB.
The outcome of this contest will determine whether global finance remains dominated by "on-chain dollars" or fragments into a multipolar digital currency order.
Are stablecoins the perpetuation of dollar hegemony—or the beginning of its end? The answer may lie in the digital tide of the U.S. Treasury market.
In June 2025, the U.S. GENIUS Act took effect, marking a historic shift: all compliant stablecoins must be 100% dollar- or Treasury-backed.
This law not only formalizes America’s grip on crypto but exposes a harsh truth: Stablecoin supremacy is rooted in the irreplaceability of the U.S. Treasury market.
Since Bretton Woods collapsed, dollar dominance evolved from petrodollars to SWIFT. Now, stablecoins are its blockchain-era vessel.
USDT and USDC—worth $250 billion combined—are the most active "offshore dollars" in history.
Yet their success stems not from tech innovation but a deeper financial logic: No sovereign bond market matches U.S. Treasuries in liquidity, safety, and global acceptance.
The Treasury market’s dominance is a product of history and system design.
Post-WWII, the U.S. held 74.5% of global gold reserves to back the dollar. After Nixon ended gold convertibility in 1971, Treasuries became the new anchor.
Today, $36 trillion in U.S. debt trades $600 billion daily—eclipsing the eurozone, Japan, and China combined.
This depth forces stablecoin issuers (like Tether and Circle) to park 80%+ reserves in short-term Treasuries, as no other bonds offer comparable liquidity during crises.
By contrast, challengers face an "asset desert":
EURO stablecoins struggle with fragmented eurozone debt (German bond liquidity is 1/5 of Treasuries).
Hong Kong’s multi-currency stablecoins hit a wall with China’s capital controls.
Russia-Iran "gold-backed stablecoins" falter due to gold’s tiny market (1/10 of Treasuries).
The crux? Stablecoins don’t just hold Treasuries—they feed dollar hegemony.
Deutsche Bank estimates USDT and USDC alone funnel $120 billion of global散户 capital into U.S. deficit financing.
This creates a perverse cycle:
More stablecoin adoption → Higher Treasury demand.
Higher Treasury demand → Stronger dollar liquidity.
Stronger dollar liquidity → Unshakable stablecoin credibility.
But the system is fragile.
The 2024 SVB collapse briefly depegged USDC, exposing stablecoins’ reliance on traditional finance. A U.S. debt crisis (now 125% of GDP) could trigger a "chain-run" on stablecoins.
Yet replicating this model is a catch-22:
No Treasury-grade assets? No globally trusted stablecoin.
Rely on Treasuries? Become dollar vassals.
This echoes the 1971 gold crisis—but now, the "hard backing" isn’t gold, but Treasuries.
America’s true genius? Turning stablecoins’ "decentralized" veneer into a new financial hegemony.
In Q1 2025, a Russian energy firm paid Turkey $120 million for gas via USDT—in 12 seconds, with $5 fees.
This trade bypassed SWIFT and banks, yet was still dollar-denominated.
This is stablecoin hegemony’s ultimate feat: Even outside traditional finance, global trade remains dollar-dominated.
USDT and USDC’s 83% market share isn’t just due to Treasury backing. They’ve built a self-reinforcing "digital dollar ecosystem", trapping rivals in a chicken-and-egg dilemma.
Nearly all crypto exchanges (Binance, Coinbase) price assets in USDT/USDC, not BTC/ETH.
EUROe and other alternatives suffer 1% of USDT’s liquidity, with crippling slippage.
Stablecoins upgrade dollar clearing to real-time blockchain rails, penetrating markets banks can’t:
Nigerians pay 1/10 the cost for remittances via USDT.
Argentine shops prefer USDT over 200%-inflation pesos.
Here, stablecoins don’t replace local currencies—they erase them.
The U.S. GENIUS Act imposes strict reserve rules but no global limits.
Meanwhile, EU’s MiCA caps non-euro stablecoins at €200M daily, and Hong Kong demands bank-grade licenses.
This asymmetry lets USDT/USDC expand freely, while rivals choke on compliance costs.
BRICS nations push non-dollar trade, Iran launches gold-backed oil coins, and SWIFT tests CBDC alternatives.
Yet 99% of stablecoin trades ($280B daily) are dollar-pegged.
When Russian firms buy Chinese drones with USDT, or Turkish workers take USDC salaries, "de-dollarization" crumbles in practice.
The 2024 SVB crisis showed stablecoins are tethered to traditional banks.
In 2025, the U.S. Treasury’s threat to sanction USDT addresses revealed the "centralized leash" beneath "decentralized" claims.
Yet paradoxically, each crisis strengthens dollar stablecoins—as users flee to "on-chain Treasuries", not BTC or gold.
History rhymes:
1970s: Petrodollars tied oil trade to SWIFT.
2020s: Stablecoins tie crypto to Treasuries.
The result? Dollar dominance, repackaged in code.
April 2025: The STABLE Act enacts a silent "purge" of stablecoins.
Its core demands:
100% dollar/Treasury backing.
Fed oversight.
Ban on non-dollar stablecoins in the U.S.
This "financial stability" veneer masks a systematic annexation of crypto—turning "decentralized" finance into the dollar’s "on-chain branch."
The Act forces issuers to:
Register in the U.S.
Hold reserves at FDIC-insured banks.
Submit to real-time Fed monitoring.
Only U.S. giants (Circle, JPMorgan) can comply, while offshore rivals face prohibitive costs.
Example: Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Ordinance allows multi-currency pegs—but entering the U.S. requires proving "substantial equivalence," a vague standard that blocks most.
The U.S. bans its users from "non-compliant" foreign stablecoins (e.g., some offshore USDT), pressuring exchanges to delist them.
In May 2025, Binance and Coinbase dropped HKDG (a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin) to "avoid U.S. regulatory risks."
This "regulatory siege" stifles alternatives, forcing markets back to dollar stablecoins.
The Act bans algorithmic stablecoins (like UST) and sidelines overcollateralized ones (like DAI).
Even DeFi must bend to the Fed’s will—e.g., DAI reducing USDC backing for gold and BTC, shrinking its liquidity.
While the U.S. tightly regulates issuers, it doesn’t restrict their global reach.
By 2025, USDC operates in 138 countries, while MiCA’s €200M daily cap traps EUROe in Europe.
The 2024 SVB collapse exposed stablecoins’ bank dependency—yet panic drove users deeper into USDC/USDT, as no alternatives offered comparable liquidity.
History’s lesson:
1970s: Petrodollars locked oil trade into SWIFT.
2020s: Stablecoin laws lock crypto into Treasuries.
While nations debate regulation, the U.S. has declared: The future of on-chain finance will be written in dollars.
May 2025: María, a Buenos Aires grocer, pays a Chinese supplier in USDT—her shield against the peso’s collapse. Unbeknownst to her, those USDT reserves fund the U.S. deficit via Treasuries.
This encapsulates stablecoins’ "dual nature":
A "financial lifeboat" for emerging markets.
The "digital veins" of dollar hegemony.
Proponents hail stablecoins for:
Turkish merchants dodging lira devaluation.
Nigerian workers receiving USDC remittances.
Venezuelans storing wealth in DAI.
With $27.6T in annual cross-border volume (60% to emerging markets), it seems like empowerment.
In truth, it’s the dollar system’s on-chain expansion.
2024 SVB collapse: USDC depegged to $0.87, wiping 13% from Filipino workers’ wages.
2025 Fed hikes: USDT fluctuations forced Turkish importers to overpay for lira.
Reality: Stablecoin users bear dollar volatility risks without Fed protections.
$50+ Ethereum gas fees exclude the poor.
80% of stablecoin liquidity is held by 5% of addresses.
The "democratization" narrative masks deepening inequality.
Southeast Asian firms pay wages in USDC to:
Bypass local minimum wages.
Dodge social security.
One Filipino outsourcer cuts 30% of pay citing "exchange rate risks."
Stablecoins are a financial sleight-of-hand:
Emerging markets get dollar safety—but become Treasury buyers.
Crypto idealists cheer "decentralization"—while Wall Street regains control.
By 2028, stablecoins may absorb $2T in Treasury demand—paid for by the global poor.
María’s "lifeboat" is tied to the USS Dollar Hegemony, sailing toward deeper inequality.
June 2025: Two pivotal events:
The Fed tests "FedNow+"—a CBDC clearing system.
USDC hits $200B, becoming the 5th-largest dollar asset.
This raises the question: Are stablecoins a transitional phase—or the final form of global finance?
130+ nations are exploring CBDCs (e.g., digital yuan, euro).
Digital yuan already covers 38% of ASEAN-Mideast trade.
Argument: Once CBDCs enable real-time cross-border payments, stablecoins become redundant.
But: U.S. political resistance delays a digital dollar, leaving space for private stablecoins.
USDT/USDC already exceed many national currencies in circulation.
By 2030, stablecoins could hit $5T (1/4 of global FX reserves).
Key shift: Stablecoins are building independent financial infra:
$800B locked in DeFi (trade, derivatives, lending).
Circle now offers on-chain credit for SMEs.
Tether’s network replaces parts of SWIFT.
Challenges:
Regulatory capture (e.g., GENIUS Act turns stablecoins into "Treasury funnels").
Systemic risks (e.g., USDC’s $3.3B SVB exposure).
China: CBDCs ensure state control.
EU: MiCA protects euro dominance.
U.S.: "Regulatory capture" co-opts stablecoins into dollar system.
Emerging markets are trapped:
Argentina needs USDT for inflation hedging—but can’t audit reserves.
Nigeria’s cNGN stablecoin fails due to low liquidity.
No sovereign backing? Stablecoins remain dollar-dependent.
1971: Nixon ended gold convertibility; petrodollars emerged.
2020s: Stablecoins become the new dollar vehicle.
The Stablecoin Ordinance reveals the real battle: Control over settlement networks, not currencies.
Final Answer:
If CBDCs win, stablecoins fade.
If stablecoins endure, they’ll be dollar proxies.
The Fed’s quiet truth: "The dollar has never been stronger—in reality or on-chain."
Stablecoins are history’s finest monetary paradox:
"Decentralized" in name, but tighter than SWIFT in practice.
"Democratic" in theory, but creating billions of "on-chain dollar serfs."
"Censorship-resistant" in hype, but ultimately extending U.S. sanctions.
The vicious cycle:
The U.S. regulates stablecoins into dollar servitude.
The EU protects the euro but tolerates USDC.
Emerging markets curse dollar dominance—while locking savings in USDT.
The 2024 SVB crisis exposed the truth:
On-chain dollars are shadows of bank dollars.
Global users are addicted to dollar stablecoins—even when they bleed.
This mirrors 16th-century Spain’s silver empire: When Potosí’s mines dried up, the world realized it was chained to silver.
Today, we’re replaying that tragedy—with 21st-century blockchain.
The oldest law of money endures: Credit is not about technology, but violence and belief.
No algorithm can defy a U.S. carrier group or Treasury yield curve.
But stablecoin hegemony also exposes the dollar’s Achilles’ heel: When traditional banks crumble, on-chain dollars bleed too.
Yet like drowning men clutching straws, the world will keep buying USDT in a crisis—knowing it’s poison, but seeing no alternative.
The real innovation of the 2020s? Not overthrowing hegemony, but teaching it to breathe in code.
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