Author: Velora Growth Committee (VGC)

Velora DAO has approved PIP-72, launching a 6-month experiment with Futarchy.fi that will use conditional markets to forecast the price impact of governance proposals and protocol milestones. The non-binding pilot deploys $50,000 in temporary liquidity to test whether prediction markets can provide meaningful signals for DAO decision-making.

First proposed in the governance forums by SEEDGov on September 18th, the futarchy pilot introduces a novel governance tool to Velora: conditional YES/NO markets that estimate how specific proposals or milestones might affect VLR's price. Rather than replacing existing governance processes, these markets will run in parallel to provide additional data points for delegates and tokenholders evaluating key decisions.

The pilot will deploy $25,000 VLR and $25,000 sDAI into Uniswap V3 pools on Ethereum Mainnet, with liquidity managed by a 2-of-3 multisig (two DAO members plus Futarchy.fi). All funds will be returned to the treasury after the trial period, with minimal impermanent loss exposure (e.g. ≤$1,500 risk even if VLR moves 50%).

The pilot will run two categories of conditional markets:

Governance Proposal Markets: Estimate the anticipated effect of specific proposals on VLR price. For example, governance decisions like PIP-67 (deploying VLR on BSC) could have benefited from market-based impact assessments beyond pure sentiment.

Milestone-Based Markets: Explore how protocol achievements affect token value, such as "What will VLR's price be if Velora's monthly trading volume exceeds $X million during Q4 2025?"

Each futarchy evaluation runs for 7 days, after which the system calculates the difference between YES and NO market TWAPs (time-weighted average prices). Based on this spread, the pilot issues advisory recommendations: "For" if impact ≥ +1%, "Against" if ≤ -1%, and "Neutral" otherwise.

Futarchy uses conditional markets where investors buy or sell shares based on a proposal’s potential success. For Velora specifically, users will be able to use their own tokens (facilitated by the deployed VLR/sDAI liquidity) to bet on milestone-based markets (example) and governance proposal markets (example) related to Velora. Two prediction markets are created for each proposal: one for the outcome where the proposal passes, and one for the outcome where it fails. Users then buy shares in the market that represents their belief.

After a set 7-day trading period, the market with the higher value (determined by the TWAP) wins. If a user’s prediction proves to be accurate, they receive a financial payout.

With the proposal approved, implementation begins immediately:

1. Multisig creation and liquidity deployment – The VGC and Futarchy.fi established the liquidity multisig and the DAO will transfer the allocated DAO assets from the treasury.

2. First markets launching soon – Initial conditional markets will focus on upcoming governance proposals and Q4 2025 milestones, with the community able to participate as traders or liquidity providers.

3. Ongoing monitoring – The pilot limits evaluation to one governance proposal at a time (plus up to three milestone markets) to ensure adequate liquidity depth and reliable price discovery.

4. Final reporting – A post-pilot review will be published, including participation, volume, impermanent loss and accuracy of Futarchy signals.

The immediate goal is testing futarchy as a governance signal, but the pilot explores deeper infrastructure integration opportunities. One of the secondary goals of the pilot is gauging Futarchy.fi and Seer One’s interest in integrating Velora routing and supporting their operational needs.

The 6-month trial period provides the program administrators time to assess participation levels, prediction accuracy, and community engagement. When all is said and done, the VGC and Futarchy.fi will deliver a comprehensive review covering outcomes, insights, and recommendations for potential further integrations. As Velora completes its VLR migration and pursues Superchain expansion, if conditional markets prove valuable for forecasting proposal impacts, the protocol could pioneer a new model for data-driven DAO decision-making.

Author: Velora Growth Committee (VGC)

Velora DAO has approved PIP-72, launching a 6-month experiment with Futarchy.fi that will use conditional markets to forecast the price impact of governance proposals and protocol milestones. The non-binding pilot deploys $50,000 in temporary liquidity to test whether prediction markets can provide meaningful signals for DAO decision-making.

First proposed in the governance forums by SEEDGov on September 18th, the futarchy pilot introduces a novel governance tool to Velora: conditional YES/NO markets that estimate how specific proposals or milestones might affect VLR's price. Rather than replacing existing governance processes, these markets will run in parallel to provide additional data points for delegates and tokenholders evaluating key decisions.

The pilot will deploy $25,000 VLR and $25,000 sDAI into Uniswap V3 pools on Ethereum Mainnet, with liquidity managed by a 2-of-3 multisig (two DAO members plus Futarchy.fi). All funds will be returned to the treasury after the trial period, with minimal impermanent loss exposure (e.g. ≤$1,500 risk even if VLR moves 50%).

The pilot will run two categories of conditional markets:

Governance Proposal Markets: Estimate the anticipated effect of specific proposals on VLR price. For example, governance decisions like PIP-67 (deploying VLR on BSC) could have benefited from market-based impact assessments beyond pure sentiment.

Milestone-Based Markets: Explore how protocol achievements affect token value, such as "What will VLR's price be if Velora's monthly trading volume exceeds $X million during Q4 2025?"

Each futarchy evaluation runs for 7 days, after which the system calculates the difference between YES and NO market TWAPs (time-weighted average prices). Based on this spread, the pilot issues advisory recommendations: "For" if impact ≥ +1%, "Against" if ≤ -1%, and "Neutral" otherwise.

Futarchy uses conditional markets where investors buy or sell shares based on a proposal’s potential success. For Velora specifically, users will be able to use their own tokens (facilitated by the deployed VLR/sDAI liquidity) to bet on milestone-based markets (example) and governance proposal markets (example) related to Velora. Two prediction markets are created for each proposal: one for the outcome where the proposal passes, and one for the outcome where it fails. Users then buy shares in the market that represents their belief.

After a set 7-day trading period, the market with the higher value (determined by the TWAP) wins. If a user’s prediction proves to be accurate, they receive a financial payout.

With the proposal approved, implementation begins immediately:

1. Multisig creation and liquidity deployment – The VGC and Futarchy.fi established the liquidity multisig and the DAO will transfer the allocated DAO assets from the treasury.

2. First markets launching soon – Initial conditional markets will focus on upcoming governance proposals and Q4 2025 milestones, with the community able to participate as traders or liquidity providers.

3. Ongoing monitoring – The pilot limits evaluation to one governance proposal at a time (plus up to three milestone markets) to ensure adequate liquidity depth and reliable price discovery.

4. Final reporting – A post-pilot review will be published, including participation, volume, impermanent loss and accuracy of Futarchy signals.

The immediate goal is testing futarchy as a governance signal, but the pilot explores deeper infrastructure integration opportunities. One of the secondary goals of the pilot is gauging Futarchy.fi and Seer One’s interest in integrating Velora routing and supporting their operational needs.

The 6-month trial period provides the program administrators time to assess participation levels, prediction accuracy, and community engagement. When all is said and done, the VGC and Futarchy.fi will deliver a comprehensive review covering outcomes, insights, and recommendations for potential further integrations. As Velora completes its VLR migration and pursues Superchain expansion, if conditional markets prove valuable for forecasting proposal impacts, the protocol could pioneer a new model for data-driven DAO decision-making.