On Friday, eight ancient addresses that had been dormant for 14 years and collectively held 80,000 bitcoins were suddenly activated, triggering a panic sell-off in the market. According to Conor Grogan, the head of Coinbase, these addresses likely belonged to an independent miner from 2011, who had once accumulated mining rewards from 180 blocks and held as many as 200,000 bitcoins at one point. This makes them the fifth-largest whale in Bitcoin history.

What unsettles the market the most is that their cost basis is only $1.76 per coin. At the current price of $108,000, the unrealized profit is as high as 61,000 times. If they were to sell, it would undoubtedly cause a massive shock to the market. Considering that in 2024, the German government's sale of 49,858 bitcoins caused a market shake-up lasting several months (with a maximum decline of 32%), if this whale were to cash out, the potential selling pressure of 80,000 bitcoins could trigger an even more violent market tsunami.

A data study by Glassnode in 2020 showed that bitcoins that have not moved for ten years have only a 0.5% probability of re-entering market circulation. This has led to the common perception that addresses holding bitcoins for over a decade (with no transaction records) are usually considered permanently lost. So, why would "dormant" bitcoins suddenly awaken? The three main versions currently circulating in the market are as follows:

1. A Chinese national with the surname Deng controls the 80,000 bitcoins. He was previously sentenced to 16.5 years in prison for illegal fundraising and mining, losing the right to dispose of his assets during his sentence. He was released early this year through special channels.

2. The ancient miner accidentally found the hard drive containing the private keys.

3. The super-major player driving the recent Bitcoin rally is acting in concert with a whale. They had accumulated a large number of low-cost positions before the price surge. The activation of the bitcoins this time is aimed at testing the market's reaction, reducing the market's sensitivity to large-scale movements, and preparing for the later distribution of positions.

From the current situation, Version 3 seems the most likely. The main reasons are twofold: First, after "accidentally" obtaining the 80,000 bitcoins, the whale simply transferred them to a new address and did not take any further action. This behavior aligns with the conventional security management practices of large Bitcoin holders. Second, after the news broke, the price of Bitcoin in the secondary market only fell by 1.09%. There was no sign of smart money rushing to sell. These two points indicate that the whale does not have a clear intention to sell in the short term, and the super-major players have not regarded the sudden activation of the ancient address as an uncontrollable factor.

Trump's "Big and Beautiful" Act: A New Era of Fiscal Expansion

On July 4, U.S. President Trump formally signed the "Big and Beautiful Act," marking the implementation of a large-scale tax cut and fiscal spending plan. The passage of this act signifies that the Trump administration has completely abandoned its fiscal austerity goals and is instead restarting and expanding the fiscal expansion policies from his first term. Notably, compared to the $2.43 trillion increase in the deficit brought about by the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" during Trump's first term, the "Big and Beautiful Act" is expected to increase the federal fiscal deficit by as much as $5 trillion, a significantly larger scale of expansion.

Although the long-term impact of the "Big and Beautiful" act may push U.S. debt towards a cliff, in the short term, the act permanently extends the personal income tax and estate tax cuts from the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act." It also increases the standard deduction for single taxpayers by $1,000 and for married couples by $2,000 (until 2028), and exempts taxes on tips, overtime pay, and some auto loan interest. These measures can increase residents' income, stimulate consumption, and boost the stock market in the short term, with effects comparable to directly distributing cash.

In addition to fiscal expansion, adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) in the banking system could be another potential major positive factor. On June 25, 2025, the Federal Reserve released a draft proposal for the revised SLR rules, considering reducing the requirement for large banks (eSLR) from 5% to 3.5% and possibly excluding low-risk assets such as U.S. Treasuries and central bank deposits from the leverage ratio calculation.

According to Treasury Secretary Besant's forecast, the SLR adjustment will be completed in the summer (June-August), and it is expected to release about $2 trillion in balance sheet space for large U.S. banks and lower long-term U.S. Treasury yields by 30-50 basis points.

The current macroeconomic policy mix in the U.S. is very clear: The new debt from the "Big and Beautiful Act" will be jointly absorbed by the banking system (through SLR adjustments) and the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" (which mainly digests short-term debt), while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts provide basic liquidity support.

This policy loop is expected to run smoothly in the short term and is likely to continue supporting the strength of risky assets such as U.S. stocks and Bitcoin.

On Friday, eight ancient addresses that had been dormant for 14 years and collectively held 80,000 bitcoins were suddenly activated, triggering a panic sell-off in the market. According to Conor Grogan, the head of Coinbase, these addresses likely belonged to an independent miner from 2011, who had once accumulated mining rewards from 180 blocks and held as many as 200,000 bitcoins at one point. This makes them the fifth-largest whale in Bitcoin history.

What unsettles the market the most is that their cost basis is only $1.76 per coin. At the current price of $108,000, the unrealized profit is as high as 61,000 times. If they were to sell, it would undoubtedly cause a massive shock to the market. Considering that in 2024, the German government's sale of 49,858 bitcoins caused a market shake-up lasting several months (with a maximum decline of 32%), if this whale were to cash out, the potential selling pressure of 80,000 bitcoins could trigger an even more violent market tsunami.

A data study by Glassnode in 2020 showed that bitcoins that have not moved for ten years have only a 0.5% probability of re-entering market circulation. This has led to the common perception that addresses holding bitcoins for over a decade (with no transaction records) are usually considered permanently lost. So, why would "dormant" bitcoins suddenly awaken? The three main versions currently circulating in the market are as follows:

1. A Chinese national with the surname Deng controls the 80,000 bitcoins. He was previously sentenced to 16.5 years in prison for illegal fundraising and mining, losing the right to dispose of his assets during his sentence. He was released early this year through special channels.

2. The ancient miner accidentally found the hard drive containing the private keys.

3. The super-major player driving the recent Bitcoin rally is acting in concert with a whale. They had accumulated a large number of low-cost positions before the price surge. The activation of the bitcoins this time is aimed at testing the market's reaction, reducing the market's sensitivity to large-scale movements, and preparing for the later distribution of positions.

From the current situation, Version 3 seems the most likely. The main reasons are twofold: First, after "accidentally" obtaining the 80,000 bitcoins, the whale simply transferred them to a new address and did not take any further action. This behavior aligns with the conventional security management practices of large Bitcoin holders. Second, after the news broke, the price of Bitcoin in the secondary market only fell by 1.09%. There was no sign of smart money rushing to sell. These two points indicate that the whale does not have a clear intention to sell in the short term, and the super-major players have not regarded the sudden activation of the ancient address as an uncontrollable factor.

Trump's "Big and Beautiful" Act: A New Era of Fiscal Expansion

On July 4, U.S. President Trump formally signed the "Big and Beautiful Act," marking the implementation of a large-scale tax cut and fiscal spending plan. The passage of this act signifies that the Trump administration has completely abandoned its fiscal austerity goals and is instead restarting and expanding the fiscal expansion policies from his first term. Notably, compared to the $2.43 trillion increase in the deficit brought about by the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" during Trump's first term, the "Big and Beautiful Act" is expected to increase the federal fiscal deficit by as much as $5 trillion, a significantly larger scale of expansion.

Although the long-term impact of the "Big and Beautiful" act may push U.S. debt towards a cliff, in the short term, the act permanently extends the personal income tax and estate tax cuts from the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act." It also increases the standard deduction for single taxpayers by $1,000 and for married couples by $2,000 (until 2028), and exempts taxes on tips, overtime pay, and some auto loan interest. These measures can increase residents' income, stimulate consumption, and boost the stock market in the short term, with effects comparable to directly distributing cash.

In addition to fiscal expansion, adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) in the banking system could be another potential major positive factor. On June 25, 2025, the Federal Reserve released a draft proposal for the revised SLR rules, considering reducing the requirement for large banks (eSLR) from 5% to 3.5% and possibly excluding low-risk assets such as U.S. Treasuries and central bank deposits from the leverage ratio calculation.

According to Treasury Secretary Besant's forecast, the SLR adjustment will be completed in the summer (June-August), and it is expected to release about $2 trillion in balance sheet space for large U.S. banks and lower long-term U.S. Treasury yields by 30-50 basis points.

The current macroeconomic policy mix in the U.S. is very clear: The new debt from the "Big and Beautiful Act" will be jointly absorbed by the banking system (through SLR adjustments) and the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" (which mainly digests short-term debt), while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts provide basic liquidity support.

This policy loop is expected to run smoothly in the short term and is likely to continue supporting the strength of risky assets such as U.S. stocks and Bitcoin.